UFC 263 Odds: Demian Maia vs. Belal Muhammad Prediction

Payton Matthews
June 9, 2021

There are two welterweight fights on the UFC 263 main card from Phoenix on Saturday night. The first welterweight fight go go features Demian Maia versus Belal Muhammad. The latter is a -255 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Maia at +190.

Demian Maia UFC 263 Odds

The current welterweight champion is a fighter many believe is the best pound-for-pound in the UFC in Kamaru Usman. Maia’s days of fighting for a title are surely gone at age 43, but the Brazilian is still ranked No. 9 in the division.

Maia (28-10), who began his career at middleweight, is considered one of the top grapplers in MMA history. He has been fighting, incredibly, since 2001. Maia fought all-time great Anderson Silva for the middleweight title at UFC 112 in 2010 and lost by unanimous decision. Maia also fought Canada’s Rory MacDonald at UFC 170 (non-title bout) and lost by unanimous decision. Another title fight presented itself at welterweight in July 2017 versus Tyron Woodley, who won by unanimous decision.

That loss to Woodley started a three-fight losing streak for Maia, including a May 2018 loss to Usman, before Usman was the champion. Maia followed that skid with three straight wins, but he hasn’t fought in the Octagon since a first-round TKO loss to Gilbert Burns, who is ranked as the No. 2 welterweight, in March 2020. It is possible Maia will retire after this one.

The southpaw, Maia, wins the majority of the time by submission (50 per cent) and rarely by KO/TKO (11 per cent). Eight of his losses are via decision. Maia averages 1.82 significant strikes landed per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.03 strikes per minute. His takedown average is 2.55 per 15 minutes with 26 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 61 per cent.

Belal Muhammad UFC 263 Odds

The 32-year-old Muhammad (18-3) is from the Chicago area and ranked No. 12 in the division. He has yet to fight for a title in the UFC but he did get a title shot in the Titan FC organization, beating Steve Carl for the welterweight belt. Muhammad would then move to the UFC, but lost his debut on short notice against Alan Jouban in July 2016.

Since then, Muhammad’s losses were to Vicente Luque (first-round KO) in November 2016 and Geoff Neal (unanimous decision) in January 2019. “Remember the Name” is on a five-fight unbeaten streak, but his most recent bout in March was ruled a no-contest versus Leon Edwards. During the second round, Edwards poked Muhammad in the eye, rendering him unable to continue.

Thirteen of Muhammad’s 18 wins are by decision and just one is by submission. He plans to keep Maia on his feet: “All the top fighters who beat him followed the same plan. I know that I’m better than him in the striking game, so I´ll keep it standing up.”

Muhammad lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.02. His takedown average is 1.97 per 15 minutes with 28 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 85 per cent.