UFC 258 Odds: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns Prediction

The third time is the charm for this bout between former training partners and teammates Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns.  After this fight was delayed twice since last July, Usman and Burns will finally face off in the main event of UFC 258 on Saturday in a welterweight championship bout.

Usman is the favourite to win at -245 on the MMA odds, with Burns coming in at +180.

Kamaru Usman UFC 258 Odds

Kamaru Usman (17-1 MMA record) has faced 12 fighters in the UFC and sent them all packing. Usman’s only professional loss came eight years ago and since then he has rolled off 16 straight wins and two title defences. His current 12-fight win streak in the UFC is tied for most all time in the welterweight division. Usman first won the welterweight title with a unanimous decision victory over Tyron Woodley at UFC 235 in March 2019. The champ followed that up with a brutal fifth round KO over Colby Covington at UFC 245 in December 2019. In Usman’s last fight, he faced Jorge Masvidal on short notice at UFC 251 in July 2020, after Gilbert Burns tested positive for COVID-19 and was forced to pull out. After controlling most of the fight, Usman defended his belt for the second time with a unanimous decision victory over Masvidal.

“The Nigerian Nightmare” typically dominates every aspect of his fights. A skilled wrestler with a seemingly never-ending gas tank, Usman’s grappling and striking are also word-class. Usman, who has a five-inch reach advantage, averages more punches landed per minute (Usman 4.6, Burns 3.15), has a better striking accuracy (Usman 52 per cent, Burns 46 per cent) and absorbs less strikes per minute (Usman 2.17, Burns 2.74).  He is also a much better grappler, averaging more takedowns per 15 minutes (Usman 3.44, Burns 2.21), a better takedown accuracy (Usman 50 per cent, Burns 37 per cent) and has a better takedown defence (Usman 100 per cent, Burns 50 per cent).

With an opponent who is also skilled on the ground, Usman would be smart to stay on his feet and rely on his superior striking ability.  Usman is a smart fighter who relies on risk management, so don’t expect any quick KO’s or submissions.  Even though he’s fighting a much better opponent than he has faced in a while, if Usman sticks to the game plan, we should see him defend his title and break the legendary Georges St-Pierre’s consecutive wins record in the process.

Gilbert Burns UFC 258 Odds

After originally debuting in the UFC as a welterweight, Gilbert Burns (19-3 MMA record) had mixed success in the lightweight division before moving back to welterweight in 2019.  Burns has looked much more comfortable since the move back up to welterweight, picking up three unanimous decisions and a first round KO in the last two years.  After taking and winning fights on short notice against Alexey Kunchenko and Gunnar Nelson, Burns established himself as a new threat in the division.  The Brutal first round KO over Demian Maia in March 2020 set Burns up for a major fight with veteran Tyron Woodley.  Burns knocked Woodley down in the first round before dominating the former champion the rest of the fight on his way to a unanimous decision win and the No. 1 contender position.

Burns is definitely a more skilled opponent than Usman last faced.  As Usman’s former teammate and training partner, Burns should also have a strategic advantage over Usman’s other opponents.  Burns is a talented grappler and wrestler, who is just as good on the ground as his opponent.  His striking lacks the technical ability of his opponent, but his punches are heavy enough to end the fight with one hit.  Since the move back to welterweight, Burns has been able to blend his ground game and striking ability together to create problems for his opponents.  The benefit of the kind of knowledge Burns has as a former teammate of his opponent is underrated.  Strategy and execution will be key to Burns taking the belt on Saturday.

Usman vs. Burns UFC 258 Prediction

Usman and Burns know what they’re getting from each other.  They’ve trained and fought together in the past and both are smart enough fighters to be cautious and limit the risks they take.  Usman knows he’s the better striker so the champ will likely try to keep this fight standing up.  After a careful first couple of rounds, Usman’s endurance will allow him to keep the pace higher than Burns can handle.  Look for a unanimous decision Usman victory.