UFC 251 Card Odds: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal Prediction

Welcome to Fight Island.  It should be a battle of fire and ice between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal, with the welterweight title up for grabs at UFC 251.

Saturday’s main event will see Usman in his second title defense as champion when he takes on BMF title-holder Masvidal.  Masvidal was a last minute addition after Gilbert Burns was forced to withdraw, last week, setting up a battle between two fighters who genuinely dislike each other.  The champ is the favourite at -230, while Masvidal will look to dethrone him at +170 odds.

Kamaru Usman UFC Odds

Last year was a coming out party for Usman, who cemented his reputation as one of the best fighters in the UFC when he won the welterweight title over Tyron Woodley by a dominating unanimous decision, at UFC 235.  The Nigerian has been a force in his MMA career, with a 16-1 record and is coming into this fight with 15 straight wins, including no UFC losses (10-0).

Usman’s biggest physical advantage will be his bulky frame.  He generally hovers around 170 pounds compared to Masvidal’s 156 pounds.  This will be key, as he likes to fight at a high pace, bringing pressure to land takedowns and mat returns.  He has a slight edge in average strikes landed (Usman 4.6, Masvidal 4.1) and significant strikes (Usman 52 per cent, Masvidal 48 per cent), but grappling is really what separates Usman from Masvidal.  Usman averages 3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes and 100 per cent take down defense compared to just 1.16 takedowns and 77 per cent take down defense for Masvidal.

Jorge Masvidal UFC Odds

Although Masvidal is taking this fight on one-week notice because Gilbert Burns had to pull out, don’t count the 18-year vet out.  His experience (35-13 MMA record) is going to be an asset and he had a dominating year in 2019, finishing with three KO wins.  He started the year by demolishing Darren Till at Fight Night 147, then finished Ben Askren in five seconds with a flying knee at UFC 239 and finished the year by brutally claiming the Baddest Motherf***** in the Game Belt over Nate Diaz at UFC 244.

Masvidal is deceptively dangerous.  He has been known as a counter-fighter, who possesses a good takedown defense, but last year he started to establish a more aggressive striking attack.  If he wants to pull off the upset victory, Masvidal is going to need to slow Usman down and stay away from the ground.

Usman vs. Masvidal UFC Fight Island Prediction:

If there are any weaknesses in Usman’s fighting, no one has figured them out yet.  The champ is sure to defend his title and win over Masvidal.