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UFC 249 Odds: Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro Prediction

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The first fight on the UFC 249 main card on Saturday night features former NFL player Greg Hardy taking on relative unknown Yorgan De Castro in a heavyweight bout. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view and there will be no fans in attendance. Here’s a look at the latest UFC odds and a prediction for this bout.

Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro UFC 249 Odds

Neither of these guys are ranked in the heavyweight division, and being honest this does not belong on the main card ahead of such prelim bouts as Donald Cerrone vs. Anthony Pettis or Aleksei Oleinik vs. Fabricio Werdum. This bout was originally scheduled for UFC Fight Night on March 28 in Columbus, Ohio.

The UFC is trying to promote Hardy (the -185 favourite in this fight on the UFC odds board) as best as it can because he’s a former Pro Bowl defensive end in the NFL. Hardy was a sixth-round pick by the Carolina Panthers out of Ole Miss in the 2010 draft and he had two stellar seasons with the Panthers: 11 sacks and 61 tackles in 2012, and 15 sacks (franchise record) with 59 tackles in 2013. However, he couldn’t seem to stay out of trouble off the field – especially when it came to domestic violence — and last played in 2015 with the Dallas Cowboys.

The 31-year-old Hardy (5-2) had no MMA experience when he decided to make that his next vocation. He made his pro debut at Dana White’s “Tuesday Night Contender Series” in June 2018 and beat another former NFL defensive end, Austen Lane, by first-round knockout. All three of Hardy’s first three wins ended by KO/TKO in Round 1.

UFC 249 - Yorgan De Castro v Greg Hardy

  • Greg Hardy -190
  • Yorgan De Castro +150

However, he comes off a November 2019 loss to Alexander Volkov (No. 7 in division) via unanimous decision last November. Hardy was a short-notice replacement for ex-heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos.

The 33-year-old De Castro (6-0) is from Cape Verde but now lives in Massachusetts. He made his UFC debut last October and beat Justin Tafa by first-round knockout. De Castro earned a $50,000 “Performance of the Night” bonus for that. Only one of his six fights have gone to the judges.

UFC 249 Predictions: Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro

Hardy will have a big size advantage as he’s listed at 6-foot-5, 265 pounds with a reach of 80 inches, while De Castro is 6-foot-1, 260 pounds with a reach of 74 inches. Neither guy even bothers trying to get an opponent on the ground.

UFC 249 - Yorgan De Castro v Greg Hardy

Method of Victory
  • Greg Hardy by KO TKO or Disqualification +125
  • Yorgan De Castro by KO TKO or Disqualification +205
  • Greg Hardy by Decision or Technical Decision +270
  • Yorgan De Castro by Decision or Technical Decision +900
  • Greg Hardy by Submission +1600
  • Yorgan De Castro by Submission +2000
  • Draw or Technical Draw +3300

The over-under rounds is just 1.5, although the over is a -175 favourite. That the fight goes the distance is a +200 underdog. The favoured method of victory is Hardy by KO, TKO or disqualification at +125, while De Castro winning that way is +205. Take Hardy to finish this by KO/TKO.