UFC 249 Odds: Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson Prediction
There’s just one women’s fight on the entire UFC 249 card Saturday nightand it’s a preliminary strawweight bout between Americans Carla Esparza and Michelle Waterson. Check out the latest UFC odds for the card.
There was to be a women’s featherweight championship fight on the main card of UFC 249 between champion Amanda Nunes and Felicia Spencer, but Nunes withdrew from the card because of nagging injury and of concerns over training during the coronavirus pandemic. Those two will fight on June 6 instead with a location TBA. Many MMA observers thought Esparza-Waterson should have been moved to the main card as it’s a much better matchup than the Greg Hardy-Yorgan De Castro heavyweight bout.
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Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson UFC 249 Odds
You’ll find Esparza (16-6) as a -155 favourite on the UFC odds board against Waterson (17-7), who is +120. Weili Zhang is the women’s strawweight champion with Esparza ranked seventh and Waterson eighth. These two originally were to fight on April 11 at UFC Fight Night 172.
The 32-year-old Esparza was the first-ever strawweight champion of Invicta FC and then became the first in the UFC, too, by beating Rose Namajunas via third-round submission (rear-naked choke) in “the Ultimate Fighter 20” finale in December 2014. However, Esparza’s UFC reign was short as she lost next time out via second-round knockout (punches) to Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
The “Cookie Monster” hasn’t had a title fight since. She comes off a September 2019 majority decision victory over Alexa Grasso. Eight of Esparza’s 15 wins by decision, with four by submission and three by KO/TKO. Half of her losses are via decision. She averages 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes and 2.22 significant strikes landed per minute. Esparza winning by decision on Saturday is the favoured method of victory. By KO, TKO or disqualification is +1000 and via submission a +1200 long shot.
Waterson, 34, is a former Invicta FC atomweight champion and is 5-3 since joining the UFC in July 2015. She missed nearly 18 months due to injury after her debut, a submission victory over Angela Magana. Waterson has a few common opponents with Esparza, including Namajunas and Jedrzejczyk. “The Karate Hottie” lost to Namajunas by second-round submission (rear-naked choke) in April 2017 and to Jedrzejczyk in her most recent bout in October 2019 by unanimous decision.
Waterson averages 3.35 significant strikes per minute and 1.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. Nine of Waterson’s career wins are by decision but only three by KO/TKO. She has lost three times each by decision and submission. Waterson winning by decision here is +195, by submission +900 and KO, TKO or disqualification at +1000.
UFC 249 Predictions: Esparza vs. Waterson
The over/under rounds for this scheduled three-rounder is 2.5, with the over a -555 favourite. That it does the distance is -405 with no at +280. That Esparza-Waterson is the shortest fight on the entire UFC 249 card is a +2800 long shot. Back Esparza by decision.