Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green: UFC 291 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
July 25, 2023

Bobby Green is a -365 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Tony Ferguson is a +255 underdog.

Bobby Green -320
Tony Ferguson +225

Tony Ferguson UFC 291 Odds

The 39-year-old Ferguson, who fights out of the Los Angeles area, is a former college wrestler and one-time UFC interim lightweight champion with a professional record of 25-8. He’s not ranked in the lightweight division with Islam Makhachev the current champ.

“El Cucuy” fought Kevin Lee in October 2017 for that interim lightweight title and beat him by third-round submission (triangle choke). Ferguson was then to face unbeaten champion Khabib Nurmagomedov a for a fourth scheduled time but it yet again fell through, this time due to a Ferguson injury.

He eventually got another title shot against Justin Gaethje at UFC 249 but lost by fifth-round TKO and enters on a five-fight skid, also falling to Charles Oliveira (unanimous decision), Beneil Dariush (UD), Michael Chandler (second-round KO) and Nate Diaz (fourth-round submission), but it’s not like Ferguson isn’t fighting the best of the best. That latter bout vs. Diaz was at welterweight, but it’s back to lightweight Saturday.

Ferguson at one point won 12 straight fights at lightweight, tied for the longest streak in UFC divisional history. He has 12 wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and five by decision overall. Four of Ferguson’s losses are via the judges, two by submission and two by KO/TKO. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by points at +450, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +950 and submission at +1200. A draw is +5000.

The 5-foot-11 Ferguson has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average 11:20. He lands 5.07 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.95 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.44 per 15 minutes with 41 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 66 per cent.

Bobby Green UFC 291 Odds

The 36-year-old Green fights out of California and is unranked in the UFC lightweight division with a pro record of 29-14-1 with one no contest. Green is the former King of the Cage lightweight champion and junior welterweight champion who may be best known to some for an appearance on the MTV show “Bully Beatdown.”

“King” is unbeaten in his past three and comes off that no contest against Jared Gordon in April. Late in Round 1, Green knocked down Gordon via an accidental headbutt that wasn’t noticed by the referee, with Green finishing Gordon via knockout moments later. However, upon review the accidental headbutt was clearly seen and it was ruled a NC.

Green is definitely one of the more unique personalities in the UFC. For example, he claimed he was officially changing his name to “King” after the Gordon fight: “I’m the only Black guy you’re going to see with a tattoo on his head. I keep telling you I’m different. Let them guys be the normal guys. Y’all can be normal. … I’m at that point where I’m just me and if you know it and recognize it and see it, you go, ‘Oh, I like that guy.’ I’m doing it for those guys. The real recognize the real. That’s purpose [nickname] is to show people I came from foster care. I didn’t have a mom. I didn’t have a dad. I’ve been in 50 different homes.”

The 5-foot-10 Green has a reach of 71 inches and his fights average 11:50. He lands 5.97 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.67 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.28 per 15 minutes with 37 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 72 per cent. Green has 10 wins by KO/TKO, 11 by decision and eight by submission with eight losses via the judges, four by KO/TKO and two by submission.

For Saturday, his favored method of victory is by points at +130, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +175 and submission at +1000. That the fight goes the distance is -140 with no at +110.