Tai Tuivasa vs. Sergei Pavlovich: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

Jeremy Perry
November 30, 2022

If you’re betting this fight, it’s interesting to note that while Pavlovich is favoured here, he’s actually No. 5 in the UFC heavyweight rankings while Tuivasa is No. 4. Pavlovich enters on a four-fight winning streak while Tuivasa is fresh off a loss, so that might have something to do with it.

Sergei Pavlovich -165
Tai Tuivasa +125

Tai Tuivasa UFC Fight Night

Tuivasa is one of the most popular fighters in the UFC and it’s easy to see why. Usually when he’s in the Octagon, his opponent is getting knocked out. He has 14 wins on his resume and 13 of them have come via knockout. If you’re considering betting him in this bout, you might want to think about the extra payday and specify ‘by knockout’ because that’s how he almost always wins.

The main issue for Tuivasa is when the fight isn’t fought standing. He’s one of the heavyweights who really struggles when things get down to the ground. We saw that in his loss to Sergey Spivak and we’ve seen it a number of times in his career.

There’s no question that Tuivasa will get in some shots and with him, all it takes is one. But if Pavlovich withstands the big hits or avoids them, it figures to be a challenging night for Tuivasa.

Sergei Pavlovich UFC Fight Night

One of the reasons why Pavlovich is favoured here is because he has an advantage in almost every realm except for knockout power. He has a massive nine-inch reach advantage, which is quite significant. It could be tough for Tuivasa to get in close where he needs to be. Also, Pavlovich does pretty well on the ground as he thrives with Combat Sambo and ARB. His game plan will very likely be focused at taking down Tuivasa. If he does get this to the ground, his odds shoot way up.

And while everyone will be pointing to Tuivasa’s power, the reality is that this bout is not really all that different from Pavlovich’s last one, a showdown with Derrick Lewis. Similar to Tuivasa, Lewis has incredible power and is dangerous on his feet. Pavlovich avoided the damage enough and ended up knocking Lewis out. And considering that Tuivasa gets plenty of accolades for his power, Pavlovich deserves plenty of praise in that department too. In his 16 fights, he’s managed to knock out 13 of his opponents.

At the end of the day, it feels like Tuivasa has a pretty good puncher’s chance here. But Pavlovich is more well-rounded and has more tools in his chest to work with. He’s likely going to come away with the win while sending Tuivasa into a losing streak for the second time in his career.