Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim: UFC Nashville Odds, Prediction
Thompson returns to action riding a two-fight losing streak after suffering a third-round KO defeat at the hands of Joaquin Buckley in his most recent outing at UFC 307, and has now lost four of his past five fights overall. While he is yet to crack the UFC welterweight rankings, Gabriel Bonfim has emerged as a rising star in the division while winning four of his first five UFC fights, capped by a third-round submission win over Khaos Williams five months ago at UFC Vegas 102.
Bonfim arrives in Music City perched as a lofty -425 favourite on the UFC Nashville odds. Thompson trails as a +310 underdog and the odds of this fight going the distance are pegged at +120.
Stephen Thompson Odds
It has not been the best of time for Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson, who continues to grasp the No. 12 spot on the UFC welterweight rankings despite his current 1-4 run that has featured lopsided losses to Joaquin Buckley and Shavkat Rakhmonov in his past two octagon appearances. Once a legit UFC welterweight championship contender, the 42-year-old American has lost a step during his steady decline. Thompson was outstruck by wide margins in each of his four recent defeats and has been particularly prone to level changes, and has been taken to the mat 17 times over his past five fights after being taken down just twice over his previous 14 fights. Now set to return to the octagon for just the second time in 19 months, the big question isn’t whether Thompson can rebound with a win, but how long he can survive against a younger and nimbler opponent looking to claim his spot in the UFC rankings.
Gabriel Bonfim Odds
Gabriel Bonfim has proven he can compete standing or on the mat while compiling a 5-1 UFC record and a sparkling 17-1 overall pro MMA record. The 27-year-old Brazilian has tapped out opponents in four of his five UFC wins while also recording 10 takedowns. However, Bonfim has also regularly outpunched opponents, with his striking power seemingly increasing as his recent fights have progressed. A strong argument can be made that Thompson is the toughest opponent he has ever faced, but with the careers of these two fighters headed in opposite directions, UFC betting fans should expect Bonfim to dictate the pace in this fight and to seek level changes early and often.
UFC Nashville Prediction: Stephen Thompson vs Gabriel Bonfim
Bonfim is a big favourite in Saturday’s co-main event and with good reason. Indeed, anything other than a dominating victory would be one of the shockers of the night. The challenge here is finding the best betting value. With Bonfim likely to grind down Thompson on the mat, there is little reason to expect this fight to go the distance.
Prediction: Bonfim by submission (+100)