Edgar Chaput
April 20, 2023

Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes Prediction: UFC Fight Night 222 Odds

The hits just keep on keeping and in more ways than one. Not only does UFC Fight Night 222’s main card feature a bout between behemoths of the heavyweight class, but both opponents have a knack for settling their challenges with boisterous demonstrations of fisticuffs.

At the moment the MMA odds have pinned the American Blaydes as a -155 favourite, with his opposite number placed as a +145 underdog.

Curtis Blaydes -125
Sergei Pavlovich +100

Sergei Pavlovich UFC Fight Night 222

The 30-year-old Rostov Oblast native is one heck of a specimen and the same goes for this weekend’s foe. Both come in at 260 pounds, with a lot of that weight courtesy of bulging muscles. The Eagles MMA Moscow member enters the octagon with a sparkling 17-1 record and, as alluded to, dispatches his rivals with barrages of punches. But at least he’s polite and hugs after the fights end.

Just over a year ago at UFC Fight Night 204 in March 2022 he was scheduled to contend against Shamil Abdurakhimov, a bout he claimed in the initial round via a technical knockout. Then, last summer at UFC 277 Derrick Lewis stepped into the ring to take the Russian on but also found out how quickly Pavlovich operates by getting TKOed in the first round. Most recently, the heavyweight clashed with Tai Tuivasa at UFC on ESPN in December. After a sportsmanlike hug as the bell rang Pavlovich demolished his opponent with a first round KO win.

Surprise, surprise, 82 per cent of his victories are earned via KO or TKO. Absolutely none of them were by submission and the remaining 18 per cent came through favourable judge decisions. He has one of the shortest average fight times in the UFC at 2:15. Significant strikes per 60 seconds? A stunning 8.07. Granted, he absorbs a considerable 4.3 in that same time frame, but he lands so many it hasn’t affected the outcome of his fights. It should be noted, especially given the sort of punches he throws, that he has a four-inch reach advantage (84 to 80).

Curtis Blaydes UFC Fight Night 222

The 32-year-old, who fights out of Chicago, goes by the nickname “Razor.” It’s a little dramatic, but looking at the state in which he leaves some of his opponents, one understands how the name stuck. He has earned just as many wins as this Saturday’s opponent (17) but has lost the two additional bouts he’s fought, thus a 17-3 record.

Curtis Blaydes is just as uninterested in winning fights via submission (zero per cent). The last time any of his bouts were decided by anything other than KO or TKO was way back in September 2021 at UFC 266 when he tussled with Jairzinho Rozenstruik and was dependant on a unanimous decision. Since then there was a battle versus Chris Daukaus at UFC on ESPN 33 that was settled in the sophomore round through a TKO and left Daukaus a little worse for wear. The freshest fight was arguably not that recent. It was last summer in July for UFC Fight Night 208 against Tom Aspinall. Blaydes was declared the winner, but Aspinall suffered a knee injury less than a minute in, thus putting an abrupt end to the tilt.

Much like Pavlovich, most of Blaydes’ fights end via KO or TKO (71 per cent) with the rest thanks to favourable decisions. His average fight time is much longer at 9:37. This feels like it could be a key factor. Can Blaydes keep his rival in the ring long enough to possibly tire him out? Another fascinating dichotomy is the incredibly low number of significant hits taken per minute: a scant 1.7. Remember, Pavlovich strikes 8.07 times. Something will have to give. Blaydes also has more variety in his attacks, with an average of 6.05 takedowns every 15 minutes to his opponent’s zero.