Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua: Boxing Odds, Prediction

Jake Paul is stepping back into the boxing ring as “The Problem Child” prepares to face former heavyweight champion and Olympic gold medalist Anthony Joshua on Friday night at Kaesya Center in Miami, Florida.

The event will air live on Netflix as part of the streaming service’s fourth boxing card.

Joshua is a heavy -1000 favourite to win on the boxing odds, while Paul is a +550 underdog.

Jake Paul Boxing Odds

Paul is 12-1 in his professional boxing career, but he’s consistently been accused of cherrypicking fights against retired MMA fighters with no boxing background. That won’t be the case against Joshua, who holds a six-inch reach advantage and five-inch height advantage while weighing in at 27 pounds heavier than the YouTuber.

Paul has won six straight fights since suffering a split decision loss against Tommy Fury in Feb. 2023. Last time out was arguably his most impressive win as it came against former middleweight champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who is obviously a legitimate opponent.

The big concern for Paul is the weight disadvantage he will have. Paul has competed between 185 and 200 pounds, but his only heavyweight fight was the travesty of a matchup against 59-year-old Mike Tyson last year.

For comparison, Paul weighed in at 216.4 pounds for this fight, while Joshua tipped the scales at 243.4 pounds. That’s a massive difference. Not only will Paul struggle to close the gap with a major reach disadvantage, but even if he does, Joshua has an iron chin that has only led to two career knockout losses.

Anthony Joshua Boxing Odds

This is clearly all about a payday for Joshua, who is 28-4 professionally. The 36-year-old is a two-time heavyweight champion, holding the unified world heavyweight championship from 2017 to 2019 and again from 2019 to 2021.

Joshua also had a decorated amateur career. He won a silver medal representing England in the super heavyweight division at the 2011 World Championships and he won gold at the 2012 Olympics.

On paper, this fight is a huge matchup. However, Joshua hasn’t fought since suffering a devastating fifth-round knockout against Daniel Dubois in September 2024. Joshua entered the fight as the clear-cut betting favourite, but he was dropped in the first, third, fourth and fifth rounds before the fight was called off.

There’s also something to be said about how much weight Joshua had to cut to make this fight. Just looking at his last fight against Dubois, the Englishman weighed in at 252.5 pounds. It’s fair to question how much he will be affected after cutting nearly 10 pounds more than he did for his last fight.

Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua Prediction

I’ll cut to the chase. Joshua has a significantly longer reach, he’s heavier and he’s so much more experienced than Paul, so unless there’s something big I’m missing, this fight is hands down won by Joshua.

However, let’s go beyond Joshua winning outright and get a little more bang for our buck. The smart money is on Joshua winning by knockout at -350, but it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve gone against the smart decision.

Give me Joshua to win on points at +450. This is a Netflix-streamed fight and they don’t want it over in the first minute. The fight is sanctioned and everything is legit, but Paul knows how important it is to put on a show and I think Joshua does too.

Paul and Joshua will go toe-to-toe much like Paul and Tyson did. No one will be embarrassed, but the better fighter, Joshua, will win.