Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira: UFC 276 Odds, Prediction

The middleweight belt is on the line in the main event of Saturday’s UFC 276 card from Las Vegas, Nevada, but before that fight goes down, another pair of middleweights will meet with No. 4 contender Sean Strickland facing unranked Alex Pereira.

Pereira is a -135 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Strickland is a +100 underdog.

Sean Strickland UFC 276 Odds

Strickland (25-3 MMA record) has come back from a two-year injury layoff stronger than ever.  A former King of the Cage middleweight champion, he’s compiled a 12-3 record since debuting at UFC 171 in 2014.  Strickland has recorded notable wins over names like Brendan Allen, Uriah Hall and Jack Hermansson.  He is actually a perfect 20-0 in his career at middleweight, with his only losses coming at welterweight.

After sitting out two full years because of injuries sustained in a motorcycle accident, Strickland has returned to the Octagon with six straight wins and could be positioned to get a title shot if he picks up a dominant win on Saturday.  The 31-year-old has 11 career wins by decision, 10 by KO/TKO and four by submission.  Four of his last five wins have come by decision.

Strickland has strong fundamentals in boxing and his tricky defensive guard generally proves difficult for lesser strikers to deal with.  He’s poised under pressure and in the pocket and he seems to always be moving forward.  The California native has a quick jab that deals damage and his boxing-based style relies heavily on combinations.

Strickland is facing a skilled striker and he’ll be at a three-inch reach disadvantage, so his best strategy may be to mix in some takedowns in this fight and launch counter attack combinations.  He averages 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes with 61 per cent takedown accuracy, while Pereira is unproven in that area.

Alex Pereira UFC 276 Odds

Pereira (5-1 MMA record) is a former Glory kickboxing middleweight and light heavyweight double champion.  He’s only fought twice in the UFC, but the fact that he’s even getting this fight should tell you a lot about what Dana White and Co. think of him.  The 34-year-old debuted at UFC 268 last November, with his TKO (flying knee and punches) win over Andreas Michailidis earning him a Performance of the night bonus.

Pereira followed up that first UFC win with a unanimous decision victory against Bruno Silva in March.  Four of his five career wins have come by KO/TKO and one by decision.  His only loss, which came in his professional debut, was a rear-naked choke submission.

“Poatan” actually has a pair of wins over middleweight champion Israel Adesanya from their kickboxing days, so you can be sure he has his eyes on a UFC matchup against “The Last Stylebender”.  That lethal kickboxing skill gives Pereira fight-ending potential in all four limbs.  He covers distance well with his flying knee and he often uses his right leg to throw front kicks to the body and roundhouse kicks up high.

The striking averages between these two fighters is fairly similar, but Pereira is less comfortable grappling, so keeping this fight standing up is likely still the game plan for the Brazilian.  Pereira averages 5.86 significant strikes landed per 15 minutes with 60 per cent accuracy.  Strickland averages 5.53 strikes on 40 per cent accuracy.

UFC 276 Prediction: Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira

Strickland will be Pereira’s toughest test, but he’s well suited to meet the challenge.  Pereira has a larger frame and longer reach, which will serve well to break through Strickland’s tricky defence.  Pereira wins by second-round KO/TKO.