Robert Whittaker vs Dricus du Plessis: UFC 290 Odds, Prediction

Even though no belt is on the line for this contest, it still features two UFC stalwarts in Robert Whittaker and Dricus du Plessis who have earned their spurs in the past and look to improve upon already very strong records.

The MMA odds deem Whittaker as a heavy -390 favourite to du Plessis’ +275 price tag.

Robert Whittaker UFC 290

The 32-year-old from Otahuhu, New Zealand has seen a number of his recent fights get switched up, rescheduled or cancelled. One wonders if he’s just unlucky but it’s been a curious journey to get to UFC 290.

Fans recall that most recently there was to be a fight between him and Paulo Costa at UFC 284 in February. In a bizarre twist Costa called it quits because he had not signed a contract, so the fight never happened.

Prior to that was an opportunity to earn the Middleweight Championship belt in February 2022 at UFC 271. His opponent was a familiar foe in Israel Adesanya, but an unanimous decision went against him. Then came a rescheduling of a bout between him and Marvin Vettori from UFC 275 to UFC Fight Night 209, which he won thanks to the judges.

Whittaker’s reach isn’t quite as good as his opponent’s (73.5 inches to 76). The largest portion of his wins come by KO/TKO, 42 per cent to be exact, whereas 38 are courtesy of decisions and the remaining 21 by pinning rivals into submission. His fights last a lot longer on average than du Plessis (14:25 to 9:33). Whittaker lands 4.48 hits per minute and takes a lot fewer at 3.26. He’s not much of a grappler given his average of only 0.82 takedowns every 15 minutes. His defence against them is an excellent 84 per cent, however.

Dricus du Plessis UFC 290

The Hatfield, South Africa native comes into this bout brimming with confidence. Not only is his win-loss tally of 19-2 excellent, but his recent tilts have all gone his way.

The one they call “Stillknocks” beat his last three opponents in three different manners. At UFC 276 in July 2022 he came face-to-face with Brad Tavares and downed him via unanimous decision. That was followed by a date with Darren Till at UFC 282 last December, which was decided by a submission in the third round. Most recently was a tête-à-tête with Derek Brunson at UFC 285 in March, settled via TKO.

Dricus de Plessis is not interested in leaving the fate of his fights in judges’ hands. No more than five per cent of his wins come via decisions. A whopping 53 per cent are earned through submissions, with the balance of 42 per cent – a considerable number – through KO and TKO. Speaking of KOs and TKOs, the South African fighter dishes out 6.72 significant hits a minute, an incredible number. Even scarier is that it doesn’t appear to make him particularly vulnerable. He only takes 3.73, which is not nearly as bad as other fighters who attack a lot. Grappling is a much bigger part of his game than Whittaker’s, with an average of 2.83 takedowns every 15 minutes.

UFC 290 Prediction: Who Will Win Whittaker Robert vs Dricus du Plessis?

Dricus du Plessis via submission