Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña: UFC 307 Odds, Prediction

Pennington claimed the vacant title with a unanimous decision victory over Mayra Bueno Silva in front of a Toronto crowd at UFC 297 last January and has now gotten the nod from the judges five times during her current 6-0 run. Peña has been idle since losing the UFC women’s bantamweight strap by unanimous decision her rematch with Amanada Nunes in July 2022 at UFC 277 and now sports a checkered 3-3 record in her past six octagon appearances.

Pennington has emerged as a -150 favourite to successfully defend her crown on the UFC 307 odds. Peña lags as a +125 underdog while the odds of this fight going the distance are listed at a short -250.

Raquel Pennington Odds

It has been a long road back to the top of the UFC women’s bantamweight division for Raquel Pennington, who was outclassed by Nunes in her lone previous bid for the title in 2018, sparking a tough 1-3 run. However, “Rocky” has since turned in some of the best performances of her career during a 6-0 run that has seen her consistently outstrike opponents, at times by a 2-1 margin. Pennington now trails only Nunes with 12 career wins at 135 pounds and has landed a total of 1056 significant strikes, more than any fighter in UFC women’s bantamweight history. Pennington remains susceptible to the takedown. The 36-year-old American has been brought to the mat nine times during her current win streak including three takedowns by Bueno Silva last time out. However, she has managed to effectively establish control after level changes and with four career submission wins, she remains a threat to tap out her opponent.

Julianna Peña Odds

It has been a long layoff for Peña, whose hopes of completing a trilogy of fights with Amanda Nunes were dashed after suffering broken ribs during training camp that delayed her return to the octagon. Peña briefly held the UFC bantamweight strap after shocking the MMA world with a second-round submission win over Nunes in their first meeting UFC 269. That marked the Venezuelan Vixen’s second straight win by tap out and has now seen five of her 11 career wins come by submission. However, Peña comes up short in experience in championship rounds, with her 2022 rematch versus Nunes marking the only time she has seen action beyond the third round.

UFC 307 Prediction: Pennington vs. Peña

With Pennington susceptible to takedowns, look for Peña to focus on changing levels and establishing dominance on the mat. However, considering Pennington’s recent strength at establishing control and at going the distance, the longer this fight goes, the more it will favour the champion. Indeed, after a long layoff and facing a formidable threat on the mat, fatigue could emerge as an issue for Peña if she is unable to finish off the champ early.

Prediction: Raquel Pennington by submission (+400)