Petr Yan vs. Merab Dvalishvili: UFC Fight Night 221 Odds, Prediction

Edgar Chaput
March 10, 2023

UFC has opted for a different venue for this week’s tilts. Fighters will engage at what’s known as The Theatre. A fitting name for the location that will surely offer high-stakes drama and intensity.

As for this fight, the MMA odds pin Petr Yan as the favourite at -265. Merab Dvalishvili sits at +195.

Petr Yan -275
Merab Dvalishvili +190

Petr Yan UFC Fight Night 221 Odds

The 30-year-old Yan, from Russia, is 16-4 in his professional career and ranked as the No. 2 contender in the bantamweight division behind champion Aljamain Sterling and No. 1 Sean O’Malley.

“No Mercy” won the bantamweight title in the ACB organization and then his first belt in the UFC by knocking off legendary Jose Aldo by third-round TKO (punches) at UFC 251. However, Yan is 1-3 since then. He lost the belt to Sterling at UFC 259 by disqualification in the fourth round due to an illegal knee. Two judges had Yan up 29-28 before that. He was the first fight in UFC history to lose a title by DQ.

An immediate rematch was planned but scuttled due to injury by Sterling, and Yan beat replacement Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision for the interim belt. Yan got his second shot at Sterling in April 2022 and lost by split decision even though Yan largely dominated the final two rounds. The Russian was last in the Octagon in October and lost to O’Malley by another split decision.

The 5-foot-7 Yan has a reach of 67 inches and his fights average 16:06. He lands 5.31 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.03 with 59 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.86 per 15 minutes with 56 per cent accuracy (fourth-highest rate in divisional history), and his takedown defence 90 per cent (highest rate among active fighters in the division).

Yan has eight wins by decision, seven by KO/TKO and one by submission. Three of his four defeats are via the judges. Yan’s 10 knockdowns landed in bantamweight competition are tied with Marlon Vera for most in divisional history.

Merab Dvalishvili UFC Fight Night 221 Odds

The 32-year-old Dvalishvili, from Georgia (the country not state but moved to the USA at age 21), is 15-4 in a pro career dating to 2014 and is ranked No. 3 in the division. He also has competed professionally as a grappler. In 2019, Dvalishvili finished second in the Sambo World Championships in South Korea.

“The Machine” is a former Ring of Combat bantamweight champion but hasn’t fought for a belt yet in the UFC. Merab comes off a unanimous decision victory over ex-featherweight champion Jose Aldo last October – Dvalishvili’s eighth straight win and easily his biggest to date. His seven-fight UFC winning streak at bantamweight is the second-longest active streak in the division behind Aljamain Sterling’s eight.

The 5-foot-6 Merab has a reach of 68 inches and his fights average 14:27. He lands 4.21 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.31 with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 6.54 per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 78 per cent. Dvalishvili’s 50 takedowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are the most in divisional history. He is one of two fighters in history to land 10 or more takedowns in three separate UFC bouts along with Demetrious Johnson.

Merab has 11 wins by decision, three by KO/TKO and one by submission. Three of his four losses are via the judges. The over-under for rounds Saturday is 4.5 with the over a -220 favourite.