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Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley: UFC 276 Odds, Prediction

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The first fight on the main card of UFC 276 on Saturday night from Las Vegas is from the bantamweight division as Pedro Munhoz faces Sean O’Malley. Munhoz is a +255 underdog on the MMA odds with O’Malley sitting as a -360 favourite to win.

UFC 276 - Pedro Munhoz v Sean O'Malley

  • Sean O'Malley -420
  • Pedro Munhoz +290

Pedro Munhoz UFC 276 Odds

Aljamain Sterling is the UFC bantamweight champion, and Munhoz is ranked ninth in the division. The 35-year-old from Brazil is 19-7-1 in a pro career that dates to 2009. He won the Resurrection Fighting Alliance bantamweight title in August 2013 after beating Jeff Curran and defended his belt once successfully before signing with the UFC.

“The Young Punisher” hasn’t gotten a title shot in the UFC and probably won’t at this point considering he has lost four of five fights – albeit to stellar competition in Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo, Frankie Edge and Sterling. Munhoz is tied with Urijah Faber for the most bouts in UFC bantamweight history with 17.

The 5-foot-6 Munhoz averages 10:50 of fight time. He lands 5.50 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 6.09 per minute with 58 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.57 per 15 minutes with 20 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 81 per cent. Eight of his wins are by submission, six by decision and five by KO/TKO. All seven losses are via decision.

That Munhoz wins by points on Saturday is +460 with KO/TKO/DQ at +675 and submission +800. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, and that the fight goes the distance is -108 with no at -134.

Sean O’Malley UFC 276 Odds

The 27-year-old O’Malley now fights out of the Phoenix area – originally from the not-exactly MMA hotbed of Montana – and is ranked 13th in the division. He is 15-1 in a pro career dating to 2015. He got his chance in the UFC after beating Alfred Khashakyan in Dana White’s Contender Series 2.

“Sugar” has won four straight since his lone loss in August 2020 via first-round TKO against Marlon Vera. He was last in the Octagon in December, beating Raulian Paiva by first-round TKO (punches) for his fourth Performance of the Night bonus award.

O’Malley’s fights average 8:26 and at 5-foot-11 he will have a massive seven-inch reach advantage over Munhoz. O’Malley lands 8.26 strikes per minute with 62 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.52 per minute with 66 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.59 per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 64 per cent. Eleven of his 15 wins are by KO/TKO. That he wins that way Saturday is -125 with by decision at +150 and submission +1000.

O’Malley will be significantly longer and faster than his opponent, but Munhoz simply doesn’t get knocked down.

UFC 276 Prediction: Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O’Malley

O’Malley by decision at +150.