Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon: UFC 282 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
December 8, 2022

The penultimate event of UFC 282 on Saturday night from Las Vegas is a lightweight bout between Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon. Pimblett is a heavy -325 favourite on the MMA odds with Gordon at +230.

Paddy Pimblett -340
Jared Gordon +245

Paddy Pimblett UFC 282 Odds

The lightweight champion is Islam Makhachev and the 27-year-old Englishman Pimblett is not ranked in the division. A professional since 2012, Pimblett is a former Cage Warriors featherweight champion with a 19-3 record.

“The Baddy” is 3-0 since joining the UFC with wins over Luigi Vendramini (first-round TKO), Rodrigo Vargas (first-round submission) and in July against Jordan Leavitt (second-round submission) – so all three by stoppage. Pimblett earned the Performance of the Night award vs. Leavitt.

The 5-foot-10 Pimblett has a reach of 73 inches and his fights average just 5:20. He lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.00 with 41 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.88 per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence 60 per cent.

Pimblett has nine career wins by submission, six by KO/TKO and four by decision. Two of his three losses are via the judges. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by submission at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +225 and decision +250. That he wins in Round 1 is +150. This is the first time Pimblett will fight on a numbered card in the UFC.

Jared Gordon UFC 282 Odds

The 34-year-old Gordon, from New York, is also unranked and is 19-5 in his pro career dating to 2011. He was the lightweight champion of Duelo De Giagantes in Mexico and and the featherweight champion for Cage Fury Fighting Championship.

He and Pimblett have been open about wanting to fight each other for more than a year, but it took this long to materialize. Gordon’s only losses in the past four years have come against Charles Oliveira and Grant Dawson. “Flash” comes off a unanimous decision victory over Leonardo Santos in August with each judge scoring it 30-27.

The 5-foot-9 Gordon has a reach of 68 inches and his fights average 11:47. He lands 5.53 significant strikes per minute with 58 per cent accuracy — the third-highest rate in divisional history behind Islam Makhachev (60.2 percent) and Justin Gaethje (60.2 percent) — and absorbs 3.11 with 57 per cent defence. Gordon’s takedown average is 1.97 per 15 minutes with 39 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 58 per cent.

Gordon has 11 wins by decision, including six of his seven UFC victories, six by KO/TKO and two by submission. Four of his five losses are via the judges. Gordon’s favoured method of victory on Saturday is by decision at +300, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +800 and submission at +1400.