Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili: UFC Fight Night 224 Odds, Prediction

The lone American on the UFC Fight Night London main card Saturday is Andre Fili, who is a +155 underdog on the MMA odds for his featherweight bout against England’s Nathaniel Wood, who is -205.

Nathaniel Wood UFC London Odds

Alexandre Pantoja is the current UFC flyweight champion, and the 29-year-old Wood, who will be fighting in his hometown of London, is unranked despite a very good 19-5 professional record. Wood was a former Cage Warriors bantamweight champion.

“The Prospect” has spent much of his career at bantamweight but has fought has fought his past three at flyweight and is 2-1 following a unanimous decision win last September over Charles Jourdain. Wood did injure his hand and that’s part of the reason he hasn’t fought since. He was to take on Lerone Murphy at UFC 286 in March but withdrew not due to the hand but a leg injury as he posted on Instagram that he suffered a “freak accident landing on wooden trim in wrestling practice.”

Murphy faced newcomer Gabriel Santos instead, edging him out by split decision. Murphy, who is unbeaten, and Wood – both rising British talents — actually had a bit of a run-in this week at the UFC London official hotel.

The 5-foot-6 Wood has a reach of 69 inches and his fights average 12:27. He lands 6.34 significant strikes per minute with 48 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.42 with 57 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.81 per 15 minutes with 54 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 73 per cent.

Wood has nine wins by KO/TKO, five by submission and five by decision with two losses each by KO/TKO and submission, and one via the judges. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at -140, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +500 and submission at +800. A draw is +5000. Note that four straight Wood fights have gone to the judges (he’s 3-1).

Andre Fili UFC London Odds

The 33-year-old Fili, who fights out of Sacramento, Calif., is also unranked in the division and 22-9 in a pro career dating to 2009. This will be his 20th UFC featherweight bout, the fourth-most appearances in divisional history behind Darren Elkins (25), Max Holloway (25) and Cub Swanson (21).

“Touchy” has just one victory in his past four bouts but that was his most recent trip to the Octagon last September, a split decision win over Bill Algeo, who was a replacement for an injured Lando Vannata. Two judges had Fili winning 29-28 and one had Algeo winning by the same score. In his post-fight interview, Fili got emotional when he told Daniel Cormier about how he lost a child, alluding to a miscarriage about a month before the fight. Fili is an interesting guy as he also plays in punk band, runs a clothing line and does a little stand-up comedy.

“The truth is, I just love to perform,” he says. “I love being on stage. I love being out in front of people, I love feeding off other people’s energy. And I really don’t get stage fright. You could put me in front of a thousand people and say, ‘Talk about something you have no idea about,’ and I could BS my way through it. I could name you a hundred things I’m not good at, but performing? If you put me on a stage, I’m going to perform.”

Fili was set to fight in February but had to withdraw due to emergency eye surgery after he started experiencing vision loss in his right eye. Obviously that surgery went well.

The 5-foot-11 Fili has a reach of 74 inches and his fights average 10:56. He lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute with 37 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.03 with 52 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.38 per 15 minutes with 49 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent.

He has 10 wins by decision, nine by KO/TKO and three by submission. Four of his losses are by the judges, three by KO/TKO and two by submission. He also has one no contest. For Saturday, Fili is +250 to win by decision, +350 by KO/TKO/DQ and +1400 by submission. Fili has earned seven of his 10 UFC victories by decision.

The over-under rounds is 2.5 with the over a massive -255. That it goes the distance is -258 with no at +166.

UFC Fight Night London: Wood vs. Fili Prediction

Wood to win at -205 + over 2.5 rounds at -255 parlay: +107