Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kevin Holland: UFC 279 Odds, Prediction

Originally intended to fight Nate Diaz in the main event of UFC 279, rising star Khamzat Chimaev is now relegated to the co-main after he badly missed weight.  Chimaev will now take on Kevin Holland in a catchweight bout at 180 pounds.

Chimaev is a heavy -470 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Holland is a +345 underdog.

Khamzat Chimaev UFC 279 Odds

Chimaev missed weight for the Diaz fight by an outstanding 7.5 pounds.  UFC president Dana White has said a medical issue is to blame for the missed weight and UFC doctors would not allow Chimaev to continue to cut weight.  Regardless of what happened, Chimaev is still a heavy favourite.  The No. 3 contender in the welterweight division is undefeated at 11-0 in a professional MMA career that began in 2018.

The Chechen native, who competes for Sweden internationally, is 5-0 since his UFC debut in 2020 and the Diaz fight was intended to fast-track him to a title shot.  He has six career wins by KO/TKO, four by submission and one by decision.  After multiple cancelled fights, the 28-year-old actually announced he was retiring from MMA in March 2021 because of longterm effects from COVID, but it was a decision that he obviously quickly changed.  His last fight was in April when he defeated Gilbert Burns by unanimous decision in the only fight of his career to go the distance.

Chimaev is an absolutely fierce brawler.  He averages 7.89 significant strikes landed per minute with 59 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.3 strikes with 41 per cent defence.  He also averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes with 66 per cent accuracy and 100 per cent takedown defence.

One interesting thing to consider about this fight is the animosity held between Chimaev and Holland.  The two fighters have been attacking each other on social media and in interviews for months.  The UFC even had to scrap Thursday’s UFC 279 news conference because Chimaev and Holland engaged in a minor fight backstage.  Fans didn’t get to see that skirmish, but they’ll get to see the unexpected rematch in the Octagon on Saturday.

Kevin Holland UFC 279 Odds

Holland is 23-7 (one no contest) since his professional MMA debut in 2015.  He’s currently unranked since moving down from middleweight to welterweight two fights ago.  Holland had a breakout year at middleweight in 2020, winning an incredible five fights in the calendar year.  After losses to Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori in 2021, however, he dropped down to welterweight.

“Trailblazer” has 13 career wins by KO/TKO, six by submission and one by decision.  He’s fought twice since his move to the 170-pound division this year.  The 29-year-old earned a Performance of the Night bonus in March for his second-round knockout victory over Alex Oliveira at UFC 272.  He also earned another Performance of the Night bonus in June, with a second-round submission win against Tim Means.

Holland will have a significant six-inch reach advantage in this fight, which suits his elite striking ability.  He averages 3.9 significant strikes landed per minute with 54 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.41 strikes with 55 per cent defence.  He also averages 0.84 takedowns per 15 minutes with 43 per cent accuracy and 50 per cent takedown defence.

This is a huge opportunity for Holland.  His opponent is a star in the making and a win would boost Holland’s stock significantly.  The back-and-forth fight against Burns proved Chimaev is human and can be defeated.  Holland’s best shot to hand Chimaev his first career loss is now as a late replacement while Chimaev struggles to make weight.

UFC 279 Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Kevin Holland

This will be an interesting fight.  On paper, Chimaev is an easy pick to win, but there’s just something that seems off.  He didn’t look as dominant against Burns and the massive weight-miss is concerning.  I’m taking Holland at great value.  Holland wins by KO/TKO.