Edgar Chaput
March 16, 2023

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev : UFC 286 Odds, Prediction

It’s the man from Azerbaïdjan, Rafael Fiziev, who is bestowed status as the favourite. The UFC odds have him at -225 to Justin Gaethje’s +165.

Rafael Fiziev -220
Justin Gaethje +160

Justin Gaethje UFC 286 Odds

The 34-year-old American from Arizona is one of the UFC fighters who specialize in wrestling. Let that not deter people from having faith in his ability in the ring. In November 2021 at UFC 268 against Michael Chandler, Bellator Lightweight Champion at the time, Gaethje not only emerged victorious via unanimous decision but the fight had UFC and several outlets proclaim it the Fight of the Year.

UFC 274 in May 2022 was a curious experience. He was pitted against Charles Oliveira for the vacant Lightweight Championship. Oliveira missed weight and was stripped of the title, meaning only Gaethje was eligible to actually win it. Despite that, he lost through a rear-naked choke in the first round.

The American definitely has a height advantage over his opposite number, measuring 5’11” to Fiziev’s 5’8”. Even so, it’s the latter who holds a slight reach advantage at 71.5 inches to the Arizonian’s 70. KO and TKO are the preferred method of victory judging by the incredible 83 per cent of wins earned that way. No surprise therefore to see whopping 7.46 significant strikes per minute. Of course, he who dishes out a lot receives plenty too, and Gaethje is no exception, suffering 7.85 every 60 seconds. Funnily enough, for a wrestler, he averages 0 take takedowns per 15 minutes.

Rafael Fiziev UFC 286 Odds

Nicknamed “Ataman,” Fiziev, who resides these days in Thailand, is a Muay Thai expert, making this bout an arresting clash of styles.

Although he doesn’t claim as many wins through knockouts as this Saturday’s opponent, his 63 per cent wins by that method is still high. In fact, his last two bouts were decided in that fashion. He faced off with Brad Riddell at UFC on ESPN 31 in December 2021 when the knockout occurred in the third round. Getting his tilt against Rafael dos Anjos was a struggle for via related issues and COVID. Eventually, he was scheduled with Renato Moicano at UFC on ESPN 39 in July 2022. It was another KO, this time in the fifth stanza.

He can spend a little bit more time in the ring than Gaethje, as his average fight duration is 11:53 to the American’s 9:37. Not many fighters are involved in as many significant hits per minute as Gaethje, but that’s not to say Fiziev’s 4.81 isn’t a strong number. It will be interesting to see how his 50 per cent defence holds up. We know his opponent lands far more, but on average Fiziev only absorbs 4.86 every 60 seconds. Like his rival, takedowns are not prominent in his game, although he averages slightly above 0 with 0.36 per 15 minutes.