Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes II: UFC 277 Odds, Prediction
The month of July has been busy for the UFC and the last weekend doesn’t disappoint as the main event of Saturday’s UFC 277 card from Dallas, TX features bantamweight champion Julianna Pena facing featherweight champion Amanda Nunes for the bantamweight belt. This is a rematch of UFC 269 last December, when Pena dethroned former double champion Nunes in the bantamweight division.
Nunes is a -235 favourite on the MMA odds to reclaim the bantamweight belt, while Pena is a +190 underdog in her first title defence.
Julianna Pena UFC 277 Odds
Anyone who tells you Pena’s upset win over Nunes last December wasn’t absolutely shocking is lying. Pena, who is 11-4 in her professional MMA career, looked like she was on the ropes in the first round before pressuring in the second and earning a submission victory via rear-naked choke.
The 32-year-old Pena, from Spokane, WA, is 6-2 since her UFC debut in 2015. The Nunes fight is obviously her biggest victory, but she also has wins against notable names like Sara McMann, Cat Zingano and Jessica Eye. Pena’s only two defeats in the Octagon came against two of the best women’s fighters on the planet, current flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and former featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie.
“The Venezuelan Vixen” has five career wins by submission and three each by KO/TKO and decision. She averages 3.36 significant strikes landed per minute with 49 per cent accuracy. Pena is also averaging 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes with 55 per cent accuracy. She’s a skilled grappling specialist, but she was able to hold her own in striking exchanges against Nunes in their first fight.
For Pena, the fight strategy has to essentially be the same on Saturday as it was last December. Don’t fix what isn’t broke. She had great success wearing down Nunes on the ground in extended grappling sessions, so she’ll likely try to get this fight to the mat. If Pena can start a little faster and harder in the rematch, she has a solid shot at defending her title.
Amanda Nunes UFC 277 Odds
Nunes, who is 21-5 in her professional MMA career, controlled the first round in the last fight against Pena. Things turned in the second round with Pena challenging, however, and Nunes responded with uncharacteristically wild strikes and faded until she was finally submitted.
The 34-year-old Brazilian compiled a 12-fight win streak, including nine consecutive title fight wins, before her loss last December. Already considered one of the best UFC fighters of all time, Nunes has beaten the likes of Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg, Holly Holm and Miesha Tate all by first round finishes. She has also defeated Shevchenko and de Randamie twice each.
“The Lioness” has 13 career wins via KO/TKO and four each by submission and decision. She averages 4.55 significant strikes landed per minute with 51 per cent accuracy. Nunes also averages 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54 per cent accuracy. Her dominance comes from her complete skillset, which really doesn’t have any major weaknesses.
Nunes is a powerful and accurate striker and she proved last fight that she can dominate Pena when she is careful and strategic. Bank on Nunes being more cautious and controlled in the rematch. Nunes’ best strategy could be to conserve her energy and carefully pick her shots. Five of the fights on her previous win streak went at least three full rounds, so Nunes knows she can still win by going the distance rather than recklessly pushing for a quick finish.
UFC 277 Prediction: Julianna Pena vs. Amanda Nunes
Did someone say trilogy? Not yet, but that is exactly where I expect things to go between these fighters regardless of who wins on Saturday. While Pena is clearly one of the top pound-for-pound UFC fighters on the women’s side of things, the result of the last fight was likely due more to Nunes’ overconfidence than Pena’s skill. That won’t happen again on Satuday. Nunes wins by unanimous decision.
