John Makdessi vs. Nasrat Haqparast: UFC Fight Night Paris Odds, Prediction

The lone lightweight bout on the UFC Fight Night Paris main card Saturday features Canadian John Makdessi taking on Nasrat Haqparast. Makdessi is a +190 underdog on the MMA odds, with Haqparast a -260 favourite to win. This event will mark the organization’s debut in France.

Nasrat Haqparast -235
John Makdessi +190

John Makdessi UFC Fight Night Paris Odds

There is no official lightweight champion in the UFC, and Makdessi is unranked. The 37-year-old was born in Nova Scotia and now fights out of the Montreal area. He’s 18-7 in a pro career dating to 2008 – prior to shifting to MMA, Makdessi was an excellent kickboxer.

“The Bull” is 3-1 in his past four bouts but hasn’t fought since April 2021 when he beat Ignacio Bahamondes by split decision. Bahamondes weighed in a tad overweight and the bout proceeded at catchweight, and Bahamondes was fined 20 per cent of his individual purse, which went to Makdessi.

The 5-foot-8 Makdessi’s fights average 11:49. He lands 5.57 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.02 per minute with 69 per cent defence (the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class). His takedown average is literally zero, and his takedown defence is 89 per cent.

Makdessi is one of 10 fighters in UFC history to earn a knockout stemming from a spinning back fist. He did that way back at UFC 129 in the third round against Kyle Watson. Makdessi also has landed 1,137 significant strikes in UFC lightweight competition, third-most in divisional history behind Bobby Green (1,404) and Evan Dunham (1,225).

Nine of Makdessi’s wins are by KO/TKO and nine by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by points at +250 followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +550 and submission at +2500. Four of his seven losses are via the judges. Makdessi will have about a four-inch reach disadvantage Saturday.

Nasrat Haqparast UFC Fight Night Paris Odds

The 27-year-old Haqparast, from Germany (his parents were refugees from Afghanistan), is also unranked and 13-5 in a pro career that dates to 2012. He enters on a two-fight losing streak. He was last in the Octagon in February, losing to Green via unanimous decision.

The 5-foot-10 Haqparast’s fights average 12:25, and he’s a southpaw. He lands 5.17 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.70 per minute with 66 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.13 per 15 minutes with 14 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 78 per cent.

Nine of the German’s wins are by KO/TKO and four by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at -150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +225 and submission at +1800. As noted above, Haqparast will have a four-inch reach advantage. Three of his five losses are via the judges.

These two were originally to fight March 23, 2019, at UFC Fight Night 148, but Haqparast was pulled due to injury. The over-under for Saturday is 2.5 rounds, with the over a heavy -235 favourite. That it goes the distance is -222. A draw is +5000.