Edgar Chaput
May 4, 2023

Jessica Andrade vs Yan Xiaonan UFC 288 Prediction, Odds

The action is set for Saturday night at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, home of the NHL’s Devils. The Jessica Andrade and Yan Xiaonan bout promises to be a devilishly good time.

As of Thursday, a decent amount of chalk is written down for the Brazilian Andrade on the MMA odds. She’s perched as a -195 favourite to Yan’s status at +155.

Jessica Andrade -190
Yan Xiaonan +145

Jessica Andrade UFC 288

The 31-year-old from Umuarama, Brazil is a few months into a shiny new four-year contract with UFC. Nicknamed “Bate Estaca” (Brazilian Portuguese for “pile driver”), Jessica Andrade brings a wealth of experience to her match against Xiaonan. In addition to being a strawweight contestant, she’s also tussled with rivals in bantamweight and flyweight.

A member of Parana Vale Tudo and fighting out of Las Vegas, the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist has partaken in 34 bouts in her professional career and earned herself a commendable 24-10 record. She didn’t get to celebrate her new contract very long, as she faced Erin Blanchfield shortly thereafter at UFC Fight Night 219 and fell via submission in the second round. The two battlers went toe-to-toe with a flurry of punches in the first round before Blanchfield got the better of her in the sophomore round. Prior to that, there was a unanimous decision in her favour versus Lauren Murphy in January at UFC 283 and a successful arm-triangle choke of Katlyn Chookagian at UFC Fight Night 209 in April 2022.

Andrade is much stockier than her opposite number. Measuring five feet and one inch to Xiaonan’s five feet five, the Brazilian has 17 extra pounds (132 to 115). Her shorter stature however means she lacks an edge for both arm and leg reach, albeit only by an inch or two. Her preferred methods of victory are many and varied. 38 per cent come via KO and TKO, a third by submission and the remaining 29 per cent earned through favourable decisions. She does away with opponents more quickly at 9:38 to her rival’s 15:20. She lands 6.84 significant hits per minute but absorbs 5.34.

Xiaonan Yan UFC 288

The first-ever Chinese female fighter to enter the octagon for UFC, Yan Xiaonan has rapidly made a name for herself. Fighting out of Beijing for Alpha Male, the 33-year-old comes into this weekend’s event with a 16-3 win-loss record.

A blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (Andrade is a black belt), the one they name “Fury” hasn’t been in action since last October when she danced in the ring with Mackenzie Dern at UFC Fight Night 211. Her efforts earned her a majority decision victory. Prior to that were a couple of losses. One was at the hands of Marina Rodriguez in March 2022 at UFC 272 by split decision and the other was a TKO loss to Carla Esparza at UFC Fight Night 188 in May 2022. As such, as good as her record is, it’s taken a bit of a hit recently, no pun intended.

One thing is for sure: Xiaonan brings speed and aggression to her fights. It helps to be as lean as she is. Of note, none of her victories have been achieved by submission. Rather, 47 per cent were earned through good old KO and TKO, with the remaining 53 thanks to judges decisions. While she doesn’t land as many strikes per 60 seconds as Andrade (5.45 to 6.84), she’s a lot more difficult to touch, only receiving 3.53 per minute. She’s obviously not into takedowns (0.87 every 15 minutes), but nor is she the victim of them very often, thanks to a 70 per cent defence efficiency.