Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield: UFC Vegas 69 Odds, Prediction

The new main event of UFC Fight Night Vegas 69 on Saturday is a women’s flyweight non-title bout between Jessica Andrade and Erin Blanchfield.

Andrade is a -160 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Blanchfield at +125. The overall main card starts earlier than normal at 7 p.m. Eastern.

Jessica Andrade -120
Erin Blanchfield -110

Jessica Andrade UFC Vegas 69 Odds

Valentina Shevchenko is the UFC women’s flyweight champion, and the 31-year-old Andrade (24-9) is ranked No. 3 in the division, also No. 6 in the strawweight division and the No. 7 women’s pound-for-pound fighter overall.

A bantamweight bout between Marlon Vera and Cory Sandhagen was originally to headline this event but it was moved. Then, a women’s flyweight fight between Taila Santos and Erin Blanchfield was promoted to main event status. Alas, Santos withdrew due to personal reasons and was replaced by Andrade.

Andrade, from Brazil, is the only woman in UFC history to win a fight in three weight classes. She is a former strawweight champion, beating Rose Namajunas for that belt at UFC 237. “Bate Estaca” lost her first title defence to Weili Zhang and also lost a flyweight title fight in lopsided fashion to Shevchenko in April 2021.

Since that loss, Andrade is 3-0. The first two of those were back at strawweight and last time out at flyweight she beat Lauren Murphy by unanimous decision on Jan. 21 in UFC 283 so it’s a quick turnaround.

Andrade landed a whopping 231 significant strikes against Murphy, the most ever for a UFC women’s flyweight fight and second-most for a three-round bout in UFC history behind the 238 Nate Diaz landed against Donald Cerrone at UFC 141. It was Andrade’s 15th UFC victory, tied with Amanda Nunes for the most of any woman in the organization.

The 5-foot-1 Andrade has a reach of 62 inches and her fights average 9:46. She lands 6.80 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.26 with 54 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 2.72 per 15 minutes with 55 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 73 per cent.

Andrade has nine wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and seven by decision. Four of her seven losses are via KO/TKO. Her favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +125, followed by decision at +400 and submission at +695.

Erin Blanchfield UFC Vegas 69 Odds

The 23-year-old Blanchfield, from New Jersey, is 10-1 in a career only dating to 2018. She is a former Eddie Bravo Invitational champion ranked No. 10 in the UFC flyweight division and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

“Cold Blooded” suffered her lone loss in Feb. 2019 in Invicta FC by split decision against Tracy Cortez and is 4-0 in the UFC. She comes off a first-round submission (kimura) of Molly McCann last November. The four fighters Blanchfield has beaten in the UFC — McCann, Sarah Alpar, J.J. Aldrich and Miranda Maverick – have a combined record of 44-20.

The 5-foot-4 Blanchfield has a reach of 66 inches and her fights average 10:19. She lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.45 with 61 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 4.00 per 15 minutes with 68 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 75 per cent.

Three of Blanchfield’s 10 victories are by submission: one kimura, one guillotine choke and one keylock. Blanchfield owns two other victories by knockout or technical knockout and five more by decision. For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by submission at +250, followed by decision at +325 and KO/TKO/DQ at +705. A draw is +5000.

The over-under for total rounds is 2.5, with the under a slight favourite. That it does the distance is +186 with no at -294.