Jan Blachowicz vs. Alex Pereira: UFC 291 Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
July 25, 2023

Jan Blachowicz is a slight -120 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Pereira at -110.

Alex Pereira -110
Jan Blachowicz +100

Jan Blachowicz UFC 291 Odds

The 40-year-old Blachowicz, from Poland, is 29-9 with a draw in his pro career and is ranked as the No. 3 light heavyweight in the UFC behind champion (but currently injured) Jamahal Hill, No. 1 Jiri Prochazka and No. 2 Magomed Ankalaev. Blachowicz is a former KSW light heavyweight champion and also has won various tournaments/titles in Muay Thai and grappling.

Blachowicz got his first UFC light heavyweight title shot in September 2020 and beat Dominick Reyes by second-round TKO (punches) to become the first Polish male to win a UFC crown. Blachowicz then successfully defended the belt in March 2021 via unanimous decision over Israel Adesanya. He would then lose the belt in October 2021 via second-round submission (rear-naked choke) vs. Glover Teixeira.

Since then, Blachowicz is 1-0-1. He beat Aleksandar Rakic by third-round TKO (knee injury) in May 2022 and then fought Ankalaev for the vacant light heavyweight belt last December — but that finished in a split draw. Most in attendance thought Ankalaev should have won. That was for the vacant belt as Prochazka suffered an injury outside the cage and opted to vacate it.

“After this fight, me or Alex — I believe that’s gonna be me — we’re gonna have [a] title shot,” Blachowicz says. “My next fight after Pereira will be, I think, Jiri Prochazka. So for me, nothing changed; it’s just this. For now, I focus only about Alex. I don’t think about what’s gonna happen later.”

The 6-foot-2 Blachowicz has a reach of 78 inches and his fights average 13:00. He lands 3.41 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.81 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.97 per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 68 per cent.

He has 11 wins by decision and nine each by KO/TKO and submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +305, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +315 and submission at +390. A draw is +5000.

Alex Pereira UFC 291 Odds

At age 36, Pereira, from Brazil, is only 7-2 in his pro MMA career and this will be his debut at light heavyweight so he’s obviously not ranked in the division. He is ranked as the No. 2 middleweight and No. 11 pound-for-pound fighter. In kickboxing, he is a former Glory middleweight and light heavyweight champion, the first fighter to have held Glory titles in two weight classes simultaneously.

“Poatan” got his first career title shot against Adesanya last November at middleweight and was the upset winner by fifth-round TKO (punches). However, the two fought again in April and Adesanya

regained the belt with a second-round KO (punches). That was the first time Pereira lost to Adesanya in four combat sports matches overall. There was talk of a trilogy fight, but Pereira and UFC president Dana White both preferred Pereira to move up in weight.

Daniel Cormier, who once held two UFC titles simultaneously, warned that Pereira “can’t get hit by Blachowicz” because “I have seen Blachowicz almost decapitate guys” but Pereira believes his break between bouts was enough time to recover from his title loss.

“Did he knock out everyone he’s fought? I don’t think so, right?” Pereira said of Blachowicz. “If he was a guy who has knocked out everybody, I would say, ‘Damn.’ But no, he’s a normal fighter. A former champion, experienced and dangerous, but many people say [about me], ‘He was knocked out, he won’t come back the same.’ I beat Adesanya twice in kickboxing and once in MMA, a scary knockout in kickboxing, oxygen mask and everything, and he came back and beat me.”

The 6-foot-4 Pereira has a reach of 79 inches and his fights average 10:51. He lands 5.23 significant strikes per minute with 59 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.76 with 54 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.28 with 100 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 73 per cent.

Pereira has six wins by KO/TKO and one by decision with one loss each by KO/TKO and submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +110, followed by decision at +355 and submission at +2000. The over-under is 2.5 rounds (under favoured) with the fight going the distance +191 and no -307.