Irene Aldana vs. Yana Kunitskaya Prediction: UFC 264 Odds

Payton Matthews
July 6, 2021

The lone women’s matchup on the UFC 264 main card from Las Vegas on Saturday is a matchup of ranked bantamweights as Irene Aldana faces Yana Kunitskaya. The fight is currently a pick’em with both at -115 on the MMA odds. The over-under is 2.5 rounds, with the over a -310 favourite.

Irene Aldana UFC 264 Odds

The UFC bantamweight champion is the pound-for-pound female queen on the planet in Amanda Nunes. Aldana, a 33-year-old from Mexico, is 12-6 and ranked No. 4 in the division. She has not faced Nunes yet.

After a stint in Invicta FC, Aldana’s UFC debut was in December 2016 vs. Leslie Smith and she lost by unanimous decision. Aldana lost her second fight as well, to Katyln Chookagian, but she is 5-2 since. Aldana comes off an October 2020 bout against former champion Holly Holm – they were supposed to fight last August but Aldana had to pull out due to a positive COVID test. Holm won the bout via unanimous decision. That was Aldana’s first main event fight.

Half of Aldana’s career wins are by KO/TKO, with three by submission and three by decision. Four of her six losses are via the judges. Aldana lands 5.52 significant strikes per minute with 38 per cent accuracy and absorbs 5.97 strikes. She averages 0.23 takedowns per 15 minutes with 50 per cent accuracy, while her takedown defence is an excellent 84 per cent. However, she’s best-known for her striking ability and often finishes opponents with her boxing skills.

Yana Kunitskaya UFC 264 Odds

Kunitskaya, 31, is from Russia and is 14-5 with one no contest. She is the No. 5 bantamweight and is a former Invicta FC bantamweight champion.

“Foxy” made her UFC debut against all-time great Cris Cyborg on March 2018 in a featherweight title bout and didn’t make it out of the first round with a TKO loss.

She is 4-1 since then, however, and last fought in February against Ketlen Vieira, who missed weight and thus surrendered 20 per cent of her purse to Kunitskaya and the bout was contested at a catchweight. Kunitskaya won by unanimous decision. Six of her 14 wins are via the judges with seven by KO/TKO and one by submission. Two losses are by KO/TKO, two by submission and one by decision.

Kunitskaya lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.62. She averages 1.62 takedowns per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy and her takedown defence is 50 per cent.

The Russian is giving up three inches in height to the 5-foot-9 Aldana, but they have the same reach. It’s possible the winner of this fight gets a shot at Nunes after she faces (and presumably beats) Julianna Pena next month at UFC 265.