Gilbert Burns vs. Stephen Thompson Prediction: UFC 264 Odds

Payton Matthews
July 7, 2021

The last fight before the UFC 264 main event between Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor on Saturday night from Las Vegas is arguably a good enough matchup to be the main event of many cards itself: A Top-5 ranked welterweight showdown between Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson. Burns is priced +145 on the MMA odds with Thompson -185.

Gilbert Burns UFC 264 Odds

The welterweight champion in the UFC is Kamaru Usman and the 34-year-old Burns (19-4), from Brazil, is ranked No. 2 in the division (Colby Covington is No. 1).

“Durinho” – which means “Little Tough One” in Portuguese – is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and silver medalist at the 2015 Abu Dhabi Combat Club Submission Wrestling World Championships. His MMA career has seen him compete in Brazil, the USA, Canada (win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier at UFC 231 in Toronto), Denmark and Uruguay.

Burns’ UFC career began in July 2014 with a unanimous decision win over Andreas Stahl. Following a loss to Dan Hooker at UFC 226, Burns went on a six-fight winning streak, topped by an upset of former champion Tyron Woodley. That earned Burns, who now lives in Florida, a title shot at Usman this past February and he knocked down Usman early into the fight, but the champion prevailed by third-round TKO (punches).

Know this: Burns has never suffered back-to-back defeats in his 23-fight career. Eight of his victories are via submission, six by KO/TKO and five by decision; Burns owns 10 first-round stoppage victories. Two of his losses are by KO/TKO and two by decision.

Burns lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.04. He averages 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes with 35 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 50 per cent.

Stephen Thompson UFC 264 Odds

The 38-year-old Thompson, an American, is 16-4-1 in his MMA career and ranks No. 4 in the division. The former champion kickboxer has trained with former UFC welterweight and middleweight champion and Canadian legend Georges St-Pierre and also beat Canada’s Rory MacDonald in June 2016.

That win earned Thompson a title bout with Tyron Woodley in November 2016. The fight ended in a majority draw with two judges scoring the fight 47-47 and the third 48-47 in favour of Woodley. They fought again in March 2017 and Woodley prevailed by majority decision, but many thought that should have been a draw as well.

Thompson is 3-2 since the last Woodley fight and comes off a unanimous decision win in December over Geoff Neal. Eight of Thompson’s wins are by decision, seven by KO/TKO and one by submission. Three losses are via the judges and one by KO/TKO.

Thompson lands 4.24 strikes per minutes – in his past two fights combined, he landed a whopping 147 more than his two opponents – with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.80. His takedown average is 0.32 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy and a takedown defence of 78 per cent.

The American will have about a four-inch reach advantage on Burns and is around two inches taller. The over-under for the bout is 2.5 rounds, with the over a -145 favourite. That it goes the distance is -167 with no +120.