Dominick Reyes vs. Jan Blachowicz Prediction, UFC 253 Card Odds

Saturday’s penultimate fight at UFC 253 on Fight Island features a light heavyweight title fight between No. 1 contender Dominick Reyes and No. 3 contender Jan Blachowicz.

Reyes is a fairly heavy favourite at -295 on the MMA odds with Blachowicz at +215.

Reyes gets a second shot at the title after losing a controversial unanimous decision to Jon Jones at UFC 247 in February, only to have Jones vacate the title in August.  For Blachowicz, this is a chance to cement his name as one of the top fighters in the UFC.

Dominick Reyes UFC 253 Odds

There is still talk that Reyes (12-1 career, 6-1 UFC) actually won the February fight with Jones, but the 30-year-old American needs to move past his first career loss and concentrate on Saturday.  Before the Jones fight, Reyes demolished Chris Weidman with a brutal first-round KO in October 2019.  His recent record also includes wins against former title contenders like Volkan Oezdemir (split decision win in March 2019) and Ovince Saint Preux (unanimous decision win in October 2018).

Reyes can be a devastating striker and as a southpaw he is difficult to figure out.  He averages 4.88 significant strikes per minute compared to Blachowicz’s 3.45, and he can unleash brutal kicks.  With smooth movement and a takedown defense of 82 per cent, expect Reyes to keep this fight standing up, where he is more comfortable.

Jan Blachowicz UFC 253 Odds

The 37-year-old Polish Blachowicz  (26-8 career, 9-5 UFC) is a veteran fighter.  He started his UFC career 2-4, but has gone 7-1 since then, coming into Saturday on a three-fight win streak.  Blachowicz’s only other fight this year was a first-round KO win over Corey Anderson in February.

Blachowicz is a fundamentally sound fighter with an arsenal that can take you out in many ways.  He is a better wrestler than Reyes and has a sneakily good submission game.  Although he tends to be more of a striker he has an advantage in the ground game.  Blachowicz averages 1.16 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Reyes’ 0.24 and his takedown accuracy is 52 percent compared to Reyes’ 16 percent.  Blachowicz’s best shot in this fight is to move it to the ground.

Reyes vs. Blachowicz UFC 253 Prediction

Both of these fighters are patient and likely won’t risk exposing themselves early in the fight, leaving a good possibility this fight goes the distance.  Reyes’ accurate striking will likely get better as the fight goes on and lead him to a unanimous decision win and the UFC light heavyweight belt.