Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira: UFC Nashville Odds, Prediction

Lewis has been idle since tallying a third-round TKO victory over Rodrigo Nascimento 14 months ag at UFC St. Louis, but has earned the win in just three of eight appearances since seeing a four-fight win streak end in February 2021. Teixeira is coming off a wildly successful promotional debut at UFC 312, where he needed just 35 seconds to earn a TKO win over Justin Tafa. The 25-year-old Brazilian now sports a perfect 8-0 pro MMA record, with each of those wins coming inside five minutes.

Teixeira returns to main event action perched as a strong -275 favourite on the UFC Nashville odds. Lewis trails as a +225 underdog, while the odds of this contest going a full five rounds are a lengthy +700.

Derrick Lewis Odds

While the “Black Beast” remains one of the UFC’s biggest fan favourites, it is tough to overlook the decline in his skills as he enters his 40s. Lewis managed to extend his UFC record for most knockout wins with his impressive victory over Nascimento in May 2024, but has entered the octagon just four time since the beginning of 2023 and has seen two of his past three defeats come inside five minutes. However, Teixeira would be unwise to underestimate the striking power of Lewis, who has finished opponents in each of his past five wins including a pair of first-round KOs and has seen 23 of his 28 career wins come by knockout. Lewis also brings valuable experience to this matchup including experience in marathon clashes that his youthful opponent sorely lacks.

Tallison Teixeira Odds

With his stunning victory over Justin Tafa in his promotional debut Down Under at UFC 312, Tallison Teixeira has now recorded first-round knockouts in seven of his first eight career fights and has seen three of his wins come in 35 seconds or less. Indeed, Tafa did not land a single strike in their battle last February, with Teixeira needing just eight total strikes to get the job done. Now pegged as the No. 13 contender in the UFC heavyweight division after just one fight, Teixeira cannot afford to let his speedy ascension go to his head, especially against a wily veteran like Lewis. Indeed, if he is unable to finish Lewis inside five minutes, he could quickly find himself in uncharted territory against a battle-hardened veteran with the ability to end an opponent with one strike. 

UFC Nashville Prediction: Derrick Lewis vs Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira has shown enormous promise but has yet to face an opponent of Lewis’ calibre, both in terms of ability and experience. Yes, Lewis has a history of getting beaten early but will likely offer Teixeira few opportunities to tally another win inside five minutes. Should this fight extend beyond the first round, anything is possible. It is tough not to back Teixeira, but the youngster will get some schooling on Saturday night.

Prediction: Teixeira in Round 3 (+1800)