Derrick Lewis vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction: UFC 265 Odds
The UFC is back with another stacked card on Saturday at the Toyota Center in Houston, TX. The main card of UFC 265 features a premier main event that will see No. 2 ranked heavyweight Derrick Lewis fight No. 3 Ciryl Gane for the interim title. The original fight would have seen Lewis take on current heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou for the belt, but Ngannou has insisted he won’t make his first title defence until at least September. The winner of this fight should get the next shot at Ngannou’s belt.
Gane is a hefty -310 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Lewis is a +220 underdog.
Derrick Lewis UFC 265 Odds
Lewis (25-7 MMA record) has become notorious for his heavy striking and knockouts. Since his return from a knee injury two years ago, the 36-year old American has won four straight fights. He won by split decision against Blagoy Ivanov at UFC 244 and took down Ilir Latifi by unanimous decision at UFC 247. Lewis followed those wins up with a brutal second-round TKO (punches) win over Aleksei Oleinik last August and another second-round knockout win against Curtis Blaydes in February. A win against Gane would mean Lewis has beaten six of the top 11 ranked heavyweights, including current champ Ngannou in 2018. He quite literally has a chance to punch his way to a title shot on Saturday.
“The Black Beast” has earned a monstrous 20 of his 25 career wins by knockout and his 12 UFC knockouts ties him for the most in UFC history. When you look at the stats, Lewis’ significant strikes landed per minute average (2.59) is much lower than Gane’s average (5.13), but that’s because of just how powerful Lewis’ strikes actually are. The main concern I have for Lewis is his gas tank. Lewis is five years older than Gane and he’s only needed to fight to decision in four of 21 career UFC fights. Lewis isn’t going to win this fight if it goes to decision, so he needs to come out fast and hard and end this in the first couple of rounds.
Ciryl Gane UFC 265 Odds
Gane (9-0 MMA record) has proven to be a workhorse and is taking his third fight of 2021 against a top-10 contender. He hasn’t had much time off since a unanimous decision win against Alexander Volkov in late June. It was Gane’s second unanimous decision win of the year after taking down Jairzinho Rozenstruik in Februrary. He’s also had dominant wins against Junior Dos Santos, Tanner Boser, Don’Tale Mayes and Raphael Pessoa since his UFC debut in 2019. Potentially one win away from a title shot, the 31-year-old will need the best fight of his career to get past his toughest opponent yet.
“Bon Gamin” has a two-inch reach advantage over Lewis and he’s quite a bit leaner, so his mobility will be his biggest strength in this fight. Gane is a diverse fighter who has earned three wins each by KO/TKO, submission and decision. He likes to blend in Muai Thai and kickboxing and his head movement and measured striking should give him an edge. The biggest danger to Gane is obviously Lewis’ devastating right hand. Gane’s best strategy is to keep Lewis moving early and wear him down. Gane has already proven in his last two fights he is perfectly comfortable going the distance. If he can get out of the first two rounds relatively unscathed, it’s tough to see Gane losing.
UFC 265 Prediction: Lewis vs. Gane
Lewis has been nothing but dominant for the last two years and he deserved that title shot against Ngannou. Unfortunately for Lewis, it never came to fruition and he may need to wait even longer as I don’t expect him to win on Saturday. Gane is in his prime and he’s too well-rounded for Lewis. Gane wins by third-round KO/TKO.
