Dern vs. Yan: UFC Vegas 61 Fight Night

Edgar Chaput
September 29, 2022

The main draw is a significant strawweight tilt between the 5^th ranked Mackenzie Dern and 6^th ranked Xiaonan Yan.

These two top 10 fighters sport impressive overall records, but Mackenzie Dern is considered the favourite to win at -225 on the MMA odds. Xiaonan Yan, on the other hand, is viewed as a +190 underdog. A close matchup, overall.

Mackenzie Dern -255
Xiaonan Yan +185

Mackenzie Dern UFC Fight Night

The American-born Brazilian has earned herself a worthy reputation given her 12-2-0 overall record. Her professional background saw her make headway in such competitions as the Legacy Fighting Alliance and the Invicta Fighting Championship before making the jump to UFC in 2018. Representing team RCVA out of California, the 33-year-old Dern is coming into the October 1^st event having conquered 4 of her last 5 bouts.

Her most recent tête-à-tête was this past spring at UFC 273 where she squared off against Tecia Torres, emerging victorious via split decision. A large stretch of the match featured takedown grappling, with both contestants contorting their bodies for the upper hand in a tight matchup. The manner of victory was par for the course for Dern, as 90% of her wins are earned by decision, whereas 10% are by way of submission. Of note, of her 4 most recent victories, 2 came by submission, so she seems to be improving her ability to conquer foes more emphatically.

When it comes to Dern’s technical abilities on the mat, she lands on average 3.16 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 35%. Conversely, she absorbs on average 4.35 significant strikes per minute. Dern certainly lands some good hits but also gets as good as she gives, if not more so. She still wins most of her fights, so she knows how to take a punch. Of note is a slight advantage in leg reach over her opponent for this fight. 0.5 inches. It doesn’t sound like much but any upper hand (or leg) matters in a sport like this. However, her takedown accuracy is evaluated at only 9% presently.

Xiaonan Yan UFC Fight Night

The 33-year-old from Shenyang, China sports an enviable 15-3-0 record in MMA. Representing the California-based Team Alpha Male, her background in Sanda (Chinese kickboxing) and Brazilian Jiu-jitsu has led to impressive performances since her career started. Prior to arriving at UFC in 2017, she tussled in the Road Fighting Championship where she won 7 of her 8 contests.

Contrary to her next opponent Mackenzie Dern, Xiaonan Yan has had a bit of a rough go in recent times. Out of her previous 5 tilts, she has gone 3-2, which isn’t disastrous, but the two losses were her most recent bouts. Furthermore, her next-to-last fight at UFC Fight Night 188 against Carla Esparza resulted in a nasty TKO defeat. As such, Yan is looking to halt a disappointing losing streak. Despite the loss, her most recent tilt against Marina Rodriguez at UFC 272 was a lively affair, with plenty of swings and pace.

There is plenty of reason to remain optimistic, especially when one considers her technical abilities. What stands out is that, at 47%, nearly half of Yan’s victories are via either TKO or KO. The remaining 53% are courtesy of decisions. She lands far more significant strikes per minute than Dern, with an average of 5.66. She also absorbs fewer, getting hit 3.77 times per 60 seconds on average. Her takedown accuracy is vastly superior, sitting at 66%. Of note, her average fight time is 14:07. Given her strong overall record, she clearly has great stamina.