Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush Prediction: UFC 289 Betting Odds

Edgar Chaput
June 8, 2023

It’s a Brazilian versus a naturalized American at UFC 289 from Rogers Arena on Saturday night. There isn’t much that differentiates these two gladiators of the octagon, making it an alluring matchup. This is in fact a rescheduled about that was originally to transpire a month ago at UFC 288.

The MMA odds believe that Dariush is a -165 favourite to Oliveira’s status as +130 underdog.

Beneil Dariush -135
Charles Oliveira +100

Charles Oliveira UFC 289

The 33-year-old from Sao Paulo, Brazil arrives at UFC 289 with some baggage. Most remember that he earned the Lightweight Championship in 2021 when he defeated Michael Chandler. After an initial title defence, the second was to be in May 2022 versus Justin Gaethje but Oliveira was found to be overweight for his class. As such, Oliveira was stripped of the title. This came to be known as “scale gate” and it seemed as though everyone had an opinion on the matter.

His only other time in the octagon since then was last October at UFC 280 when he went toe-to-toe with Islam Makhachev. It didn’t go down smoothly as he lost in the second round via an arm-triangle choke.

Oliveira certainly has a strong pedigree coming into this bout. His overall MMA record is a sparkling 33-9. While both he and his opposite number come in at five feet and 10 inches, the Brazilian’s reach is slightly better at 74 inches to 72. The same goes for his leg reach at 41 inches to Dariush’s 40.5. A victory most often comes through submissions, with 64 per cent of his successes earned via that route. Only 9 per cent are reliant on favourable decisions, and the remaining 27 thanks to KO and TKO. He takes care of business much more quickly than his rival, as his average fight time is 6:37 compared to 9:30 for his opponent.

Arguably the statistic that stands out the most is that he lands fewer significant hits per minute (3.48 to 3.81) and suffers more (3.2 to 2.55). It’ll be interesting to see how that plays into Oliveira’s propensity to vanquish foes with holds and chokes.

Beneil Dariush UFC 289

Born in Iran and raised in the United States, Beneil Dariush, 34 years old, now resides in California. While he hasn’t fought in quite as many matches as this Saturday’s opponent he has shown to be a formidable fighter given his 22-4-1 record.

The big question mark regarding Dariush is how ready will he be for this fight. While not necessarily his fault, he’s hardly fought at all for over a year. The last time he stepped into the octagon was in October of last year at UFC 280 to face Mateusz Gamrot. He took care of business enough to convince the judges to declare him the victor. His February 2022 bout versus Islam Makhachev was cancelled because of an ankle injury and, as previously stated, even this fight was supposed to be in May.

Few fighters earn wins through judges decisions at the rate Dariush does. An incredible 89 per cent of his come that way. A scant 5 per cent are earned through KO and TKO, and an equally negligeable 8 per cent by performing a submission. After all, the objective is to win, even if it isn’t done in a manner that’s as cool as having the opponent see Looney Tunes birds twirl. As previously established, he is a hard person to hit, taking only 2.55 significant hits every 60 seconds. He does rely, at least to a degree, on takedowns to impress judges, performing 1.95 per 15 minutes to Oliveira’s 2.37. His takedoen defence, however, is an excellent 80 per cent.