Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez: UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction

A championship opportunity is on the line on Saturday as a pair of top ranked featherweights clash in the main event of UFC Fight Night at UBS Arena on Long Island.  After failing in his bid to pry the featherweight belt from Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266, No. 2 contender Brian Ortega will likely secure another title shot with a win on Saturday.  No. 3 featherweight contender Yair Rodriguez stands in Ortega’s way as he looks to make his own bid for a shot at the belt.

Ortega is a -195 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Rodriguez is a +155 underdog.

Brian Ortega Fight Night Odds

Ortega (15-2 MMA record, 1 no contest) returns to the Octagon for the first time since his failed attempt at unseating featherweight king Volkanovski last September.  The 31-year-old legitimately threatened the champ with a pair of deep chokes that would have made almost any other fighter tap out, before coming out on the wrong side of the results in a unanimous decision loss.

“T-City” began his professional MMA career with 14 wins and one no contest, which actually came in his UFC debut in 2014.  Generally a submission artist, Ortega has seven career wins by submission, five by decision and three by knockout.  He’s picked up victories over notable names like Cub Swanson, Frankie Edgar and Chan Sung Jung (the Korean Zombie), but he’s now dropped two of his last three fights.

Ortega is a an opportunistic fighter.  He is a danger to secure submission victories even in fights where he is unlikely to win any rounds on the scorecard.  He struggled defensively against Max Holloway in 2018, his first career loss, but returned two years later as a more patient fighter, dominating the Korean Zombie in a five-round affair.

Ortega has a two-inch reach disadvantage in this fight.  So, despite an improved striking attack, he’ll likely rely on his grappling ability.  He averages 1.19 submissions per 15 minutes, compared to 0.76 for Rodriguez.  Bank on Ortega keeping Rodriguez at bay with pot-shots early-on as he seeks an opening for a takedown.

Yair Rodriguez Fight Night Odds

Rodriguez (13-3 MMA record, 1 NC) is also coming into this fight off a loss as he fell to Holloway by unanimous decision last November.  The 29-year-old debuted in the UFC in 2014, racking up wins in his first six fights in the promotion.  Rodriguez has picked up wins against big names like Dan Hooker, the Korean Zombie and Jeremy Stephens.

“El Pantera” is an entertaining fighter, with all but two of his 11 career UFC fights ending in either Fight of the Night or Performance of the Night bonuses.  He has six career wins by decision, four by knockout and three by submission.  Rodriguez’ one no contest was an accidental eye poke that rendered Stephens unable to continue 15 seconds into their fight.  He would go on to win the rematch by unanimous decision.

Rodriguez is finally at the point in his career where his flashy and inventive fight style blends well with improved patience and smarter decisions.  He’s gone through a few weird stretches that have kept him out of fighting for extended periods because of injuries, but it’s very possible he’s on the verge of going on a run.

Rodriguez actually has very similar grappling statistics as Ortega.  Rodriguez averages 0.86 takedowns per 15 minutes with 28 per cent accuracy.  Ortega averages 0.87 takedowns with 24 per cent accuracy.  As the better striker, however, Rodriguez will likely try to keep this a standup fight.  He averages 4.65 significant strikes landed per minute with 45 per cent accuracy, while Ortega lands 4.15 strikes with 38 per cent accuracy.

UFC Fight Night Prediction: Brian Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez

These are two legit featherweight contenders who should challenge for the belt for a while.  Rodriguez has the potential to get a title shot, but he’s not quite there just yet.  Ortega can take an absolute beating and still be a threat to finish his opponent.  Ortega wins by third-round submission.