Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway: UFC 276 Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Jun 29, 2022

It's a trilogy fight in the co-main event of UFC 276 as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski takes on former featherweight champion Max Holloway for their third title match.

The co-main event on UFC 276’s main card features two fighters very familiar with each other as featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski will defend his title for the fourth time when he faces No. 1 challenger Max Holloway.  The former featherweight champion, Holloway, successfully defended his belt three times before losing two straight fights against Volkanovski.  Can Holloway retake UFC gold, or will Volkanovski end this rivalry once and for all?

Volkanovski is a -190 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Holloway is a +145 underdog.

UFC 276 - Max Holloway v Alexander Volkanovski

  • Alexander Volkanovski -190
  • Max Holloway +145

Alexander Volkanovski UFC 276 Odds

Volkanovski (24-1 MMA record) has been an absolutely beast of the sport.  His lone career loss came over nine years ago at Australian FC 5, before he eventually held the featherweight title in the Australian Fighting Championship.  Currently ranked as the No. 2 pound-for-pounder fighter in the UFC, Volkanovski is a perfect 11-0 since his promotional debut in 2016.

“The Great”‘s last victory came by fourth-round TKO against the Korean Zombie at UFC 273 in April.  That victory extended his impressive win streak to 21 consecutive fights.  Volkanovski has also picked up wins over other notable UFC stars like Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo, and of course the two wins against Holloway.  The 33-year-old has 12 career victories by KO/TKO, nine by decision and three by submission.

Volkanovski’s skillset makes him one of the most complete fighters in the UFC.  The Australian has a deep and diverse attack and looks comfortable in any situation.  Volkanovski has no real holes in his game.  He’ll be as comfortable if this fight turns into a free-for-all as he would be if it is a technical showdown.  Volkanovski holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage in this fight and averages 6.63 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy.  Holloway averages 7.33 strikes, but with only 47 per cent accuracy.

As an experienced boxer, Volkanovski possesses a sharp and long jab that he likes to deploy before unleashing smooth kickboxing combinations.  He’s a strong grappler who can deal damage in a ground-and-pound situation, but bank on him maintaining the distance and carefully picking his shots against Holloway like he did in their two previous meetings.

Max Holloway UFC 276 Odds

At just 30-years-old, Holloway (23-6 MMA record) is already a veteran of MMA and the UFC in particular.  He debuted with the promotion 10 years ago at UFC 143, losing against former lightweight champion Dustin Poirier by first-round submission.  Holloway is 19-6 overall in the promotion and faced Aldo twice in 2017 to both win and defend the featherweight championship.

“Blessed” also fought for the lightweight championship at UFC 236 in April 2019, but again lost to Poirer.  The Hawaiian native defended his featherweight belt four times, losing the last defence against Volkanovski by unanimous decision at UFC 245 in December 2019.  Holloway lost the rematch by split decision the next July.  Since then, he picked up unanimous decision wins against top-tier fighters Calvin Kattar and Yair Rodriguez, last fighting in November.  He has 11 career wins by decision, 10 by KO/TKO and two by submission.

Holloway absolutely dominated Kattar and Rodriguez in his last two fights, landing an absurd 675 strikes combined over the two 25-minute bouts.  His 7.33 significant strikes landed per minute is third all-time among featherweights and his +2.83 striking differential is second.

Holloway is a pressure fighter, so look for him to push the pace in this fight and attack early.  He likes to throw long combinations with throwaway strikes in an attempt to set up a big bomb.  He’ll mix in a few kicks, but generally he likes to rely more on his smooth, complex boxing ability.  Holloway gets better as the fight goes on, so it will be interesting to see what strategy Volkanovski employs against him.

UFC 276 Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway

The first two fights between these competitors were extremely competitive, so there should be plenty of fireworks on Saturday.  On paper these fighters line up perfectly in terms of skill, pace and fight IQ and the second fight really could have gone either way.  There could be an added incentive for Volkanovski, however, as a win likely ends this intense rivalry, so I’m siding with the champ by a razor-thin margin.  Volkanovski wins by unanimous decision.