New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Odds, Prediction
One of sports’ most hallowed rivalries resumes Tuesday. The New York Yankees (13-9, first in AL East) are in Boston to begin a three-game set at Fenway Park against the Red Sox (9-13, fourth in AL East). The best part about this rivalry is that, whether it’s April or October, this iconic matchup always delivers.
The Yankees lead the all-time series, 1,249-1,037-14. Two youngsters toe the rubber Tuesday at 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s break it down.
Betting Analysis
We can expect mid-40sF temperatures for first pitch. New York is a narrow road favourite at -115 on the MLB odds while Boston holds -105. As such, the Yankees are +145 on the -1.5 runline, and hold a 12-10 record on that front this season. They have played in nine games that have gone over the run total. The Red Sox remain at home and enter 7-15 against the run line and have played in 12 games that have gone over the run total.
New York Yankees
The Yankees have gotten off to a solid start this season, despite missing their top two arms in the rotation: Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, and their starting shortstop, Anthony Volpe.
New York just swept the Royals at home, outscoring Kansas City 24-6.
When you scan up and down the Yankees’ roster right now, they are not getting top-to-bottom production. Stars like Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr., and impact players like Trent Grisham, Austin Wells, Ryan McMahon, Randall Grichuk and Paul Goldschmidt, are all struggling mightily at the plate.
The Yankees are being carried by Aaron Judge (9 HR, .927 OPS), Cody Bellinger (.276 AVG, .841 OPS) and Ben Rice (8 HR, .338 AVG, 1.276 OPS). No other qualified Yankee hitter has an OPS over .700. These three guys can’t keep doing it alone. Others have to step up soon.
The Yankees send 27-year-old right-hander Luis Gil to the mound tonight, and while the 7.00 ERA in nine innings (two starts) is cause for concern, he has been excellent against the Red Sox in his career. Over the last two seasons, Gil has allowed one run in 11 innings at Fenway, and Red Sox hitters are 6-for-54 lifetime against Gil with one extra-base hit.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are 7-6 since April 5 and are coming off a four-game split at home against the Tigers. The Red Sox were able to salvage a series split with an 8-6 win yesterday on Patriots’ Day.
While they will be more rested after a 10:10 a.m. ET first pitch, the Red Sox’ bullpen was unfortunately taxed in the win due to an injury to starting pitcher Sonny Gray, who could only toss 2.2 innings.
Many stars are not performing right now, but the few who are do not match the top-end production of the Yankees. As a team, Boston is hitting .222 with a .651 OPS and 13 home runs. That home run total is tied for last in all of baseball with the San Francisco Giants.
The Red Sox turn to the 24-year-old southpaw, Connelly Early. His first career appearance against the Yankees came in last year’s Wild Card round, when Early got tagged for three earned runs in 3.2 innings in the Bronx.
The Yankees are currently struggling against left-handed pitching (.185 AVG, .676 OPS). Still, Early’s expected ERA is 5.24, per Baseball Savant.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Red Sox?
The Red Sox were forced to use seven relievers in Monday’s win, while the Yankees enter off a day of rest. Both offences are struggling overall, but the Yankees possess better top-end production and talent, and have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in an optimal matchup against a young left-handed arm.
With Luis Gil carrying historical dominance against the Red Sox at Fenway into this game, the Yankees feel like a clear value pick on the moneyline and should win 5-3.
