The Philadelphia Phillies (56-47) will remain at home for the third straight series post all-star break when they welcome the New York Yankees (57-45) to Citizens Bank Park for a three-game set. The Phillies sit just 4.5 games out of the division lead behind the Atlanta Braves but have plenty of time to chip away at that lead ahead of the playoffs. 

Meanwhile, the Bronx Bombers are just two games behind Tampa Bay for the AL East lead, so every game matters now that we’re into the most pivotal time of the season.

Before Friday’s first pitch at 6:45 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.

Philly is a -140 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.5.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

The lack of run scoring has crept back into the consciousness of the Yankees, as they’ve hit the under in seven of the last nine games. In fact, New York has averaged 3.0 runs per game in their six games after the break against the Dodgers and Pirates. Against the awesome pitching of the Phillies, it’s not going to get any easier for the Bronx Bombers. While both teams can certainly slug it out, they’re both more pitching-focused this season, so it pays to respect the game total here and not touch it.

New York Yankees

Aaron Judge returning would be a huge boon for the Yankees, but when is that going to be? Who knows. As of right now, the Yankees need to gain some stability at the plate. Ben Rice (.956 OPS, 30 HR) can’t do everything, although he’s certainly trying. New York has a ton of bats hitting competently, but Batman needs a Robin. That’s why getting Judge back and pairing him and Rice together is such a dangerous combo.

Getting Max Fried back for the Yankees is huge, and his return in Game 2 of their doubleheader against the Pirates was stellar with just one hit, one walk, and zero earned runs allowed in five economical innings with just 57 pitches. It was basically a rehab start, but it is a good sign for the Yankees and their rotation, as adding Fried to a core of Gerrit Cole, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren is worrisome for opposing offences.

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been a very top-heavy team this season in both the hitting and pitching departments. When the stars are on, they’re almost unbeatable. Kyle Schwarber (33) may have been passed up by Houston’s Yordan Alvarez for the most home runs in baseball, but Schwarber is clearly a force to be reckoned with in the Phillies’ lineup. With Trea Turner (14 HR, 40 RBI, 17 SB) heating up at the plate after a two-month swoon, plus Bryce Harper (.856 OPS) and Brandon Marsh (.808 OPS) hitting well, the top of the lineup for the Phillies is formidable.

In a playoff series, no other team boasts a trio of starters with the production of Cristopher Sanchez (12-4, 2.71 ERA), Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.18 ERA), and Friday’s starter Jesus Luzardo (9-4, 3.43 ERA). With timely hitting, the Phillies are a team that can go toe-to-toe with the NL-favourite Los Angeles Dodgers. They just have to get there first.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Phillies?

This matchup between the Yankees and the Phillies has the visiting Yankees sending Cam Schlittler to the mound. Schlitter barely lasted into the fifth inning in his first start after the break, allowing three earned runs and throwing 98 pitches against the Dodgers at home.

The Phillies, losers of four of their last six games, will send out Jesus Luzardo, who has been one of their trio of Cy Young candidates in the NL. Luzardo brings a solid 3.43 ERA and is ninth in MLB in strikeouts with 143. His first start after the break saw him give up just two hits and an earned run against the Mets. He’ll toe the rubber for the Phillies as Luzardo looks to shut down the other New York club at home.

For this game, it’s hard not to bet on the Phillies with Luzardo on the bump and the Yankees’ run-scoring woes creeping back from their June malaise. We’ll take Luzardo and the ‘Phils.

Best bet: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-135)

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