It’s the Subway Series between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field for this weekend’s three-game set. The first game will be hotly contested, with the aces of each team facing off. Both starters have an ERA under 2.00 so far, but both teams are on very different wavelengths after a month and a half of play. The Yankees are 10 games over .500 and comfortably in second place in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays, while the Mets are in the cellar of the NL East – though on their way to climbing out.

Friday’s game should be excellent, so let’s break it all down and provide our best bet.

The Yankees are -160 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.0.

Betting Analysis

The Yankees’ offence has been sputtering over the last week, as they have lost five of the last six games and averaged just over two runs per game in that span. It comes as no surprise that the under has cashed in the last six games for the Yankees. On the road, that extends to the Bronx Bombers’ last nine games.

For the Mets, they’re trying to dig themselves out of the deep hole in the basement of the NL East. Straight up, the Mets are 7-3 in their last ten games, and they’re doing it with solid pitching. As such, the game total has stayed under in nine of their last 12 contests. However, at home, the total has gone over in four of their last five home games, and we find ourselves at Citi Field for this weekend’s series.

New York Yankees

The Yankees still find themselves in second place in the AL East, but it’s no secret that they’re in a big funk right now. Especially on offence, where the Bronx Bombers are sputtering. Over the last six games against the Brewers and Orioles, the Yankees have the fourth-worst OPS (.558) and have a negative WAR (-0.4). Yuck!

They’re going to have to dig deep and find some runs to support Cam Schlittler, who is second in the American League in ERA (1.35) and is 5-1 on the young season. Schlittler has given up just two runs in his last five starts, so he’s certainly doing his part despite the offensive deficiencies.

New York Mets

On the flip side, the Mets have been pitching out of their minds over their last six games with a 2.55 ERA – third-best in baseball over the last week. However, just like the Yankees, the bats haven’t exactly come along for the ride. The Mets have actually been worse than the Yankees, sporting a -0.6 WAR at the plate and a .524 OPS in that same stretch of games. Again, something has to give between these teams. 

At least they’re on the right track, as they just swept the Detroit Tigers at home and now go into this Subway Series with momentum against the Yankees.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Mets?

The Yankees send out Schlittler and his robust 5-1 record and 1.35 ERA, while the Mets counter with former Yankee Clay Holmes to oppose. Holmes has been excellent in his own right, with a 1.86 ERA and a 4-3 record on the year. Amazingly, he has not given up more than two earned runs in all eight starts this season, including only giving up three total earned runs in his three home starts. The momentum favours the Mets, so in a pitcher’s park and with Holmes on the bump, we’ll side the Mets in this opening game of the series.

Best Bet: Mets moneyline (+123)

YANKEES

Away

3

METS

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