New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners: Odds, Prediction
The Seattle Mariners (3-2) were just one of four teams to play a four-game series to open the 2026 season, and they begin their season playing seven days in a row, all at home. The New York Yankees (3-1), funny enough, have already had two days off since their season started last Wednesday night, in primetime isolation, against the San Francisco Giants.
Tuesday, at 9:40 p.m. ET, the Yankees and Mariners play the middle game of a three-game set in Seattle, and we are all treated to duelling aces in Max Fried and Logan Gilbert, who each took the ball on their respective team’s Opening Day. On Monday, Cal Raleigh and the Mariners walked off the Yankees in a 2-1 win.
New York is a slim -115 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 7.0.
Betting Analysis
The Mariners are off to a 3-2 start on the run line and 3-2 on run total Over/Unders. The Yankees, meanwhile, are off to a 3-1 start ATS and 0-3-1 on Over/Unders. The Mariners’ lineup is 16-for-63 lifetime vs. Max Fried with three doubles, no home runs, six walks, and 14 strikeouts. Victor Robles is a major chunk of this, going 9-for-26 against Fried.
The Yankees’ lineup is 23-for-74 lifetime vs. Logan Gilbert with six doubles, three home runs, eight walks, and 21 strikeouts. Amed Rosario has done the most damage, going 7-for-14 with two doubles and a triple. Jazz Chisolm Jr., Randal Grichuk, and Giancarlo Stanton have all taken Gilbert deep.
New York Yankees
The Yankees are off to a strong start, thanks to stellar pitching and timely hitting. Giancarlo Stanton dominated in San Francisco, clocking a home run as part of a six-hit series. Three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge worked around seven strikeouts in the opening series by blasting two home runs.
Fried set the tone in Game 1 of the season, throwing 6.1 scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits and one walk while striking out four. Relievers Jake Bird, Tim Hill, Camilo Doval, and closer David Bednar are all off to terrific starts, with Bednar already picking up a couple of saves. Shortstop Anthony Volpe is the lone everyday position player injured for the Yankees, and he will be out until May.
Seattle Mariners
Brendan Donovan is off to a stellar start in his new threads. He collected six hits, including a double and two home runs, in their opening series, and he has set the tone for a lineup that brought the thunder to baseball in March. Luke Raley leads the way with three dingers. Dominic Canzone also has two home runs. Just like last year, the Mariners are showing signs of high slugging in combination with high whiffs.
In their opener, Gilbert was tagged for a home run by rookie sensation Chase DeLauter and then gave up a two-RBI double to Brayan Rocchio in the fifth inning, knocking him out of a game where he would end up with a no-decision. Gilbert struck out seven and walked zero. Shortstop J.P. Crawford is the lone everyday position player injured for the Mariners, and he will remain out until tomorrow.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Mariners?
The Yankees have not only had success against Gilbert, but they have also been fantastic on the road, going back to last year. The Yankees led all of baseball in road OPS in 2025 (.794) and OPS vs. right-handed pitching (.783).
The Mariners finished just 23rd in home OPS last year (.701) and were 12th in OPS vs. left-handed pitching (.727). In a pitcher-friendly park in a battle between two teams with ace pitchers backed by exceptional bullpens, I love the Under and the Yankees on the money line.
Best Bet: Yankees ML (-125)
NYY
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