New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Sep 28, 2021

It's the biggest series of the year for the Blue Jays as they open a three-game home set against the Yankees, sitting one game back of the final AL wild-card spot.

NY Yankees
92-70
AT
September 28, 2021, 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
Toronto
91-71
Runline +1.5 -180
Moneyline +115
Over / Under o +9

34%

Betting Action

66%

Runline -1.5 +150
Moneyline -138
Over / Under u +9

34%

Betting Action

66%

This is a crucial AL East matchup as the Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game homestand against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night.  The Jays sit one game out of the second AL wild-card spot, currently occupied by the Boston Red Sox.  New York overtook the Red Sox for the first wild card spot after a three-game sweep in Boston over the weekend.

Toronto is a -130 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.5.

Betting Analysis

The Blue Jays have already clinched the season series, winning 10 of 16 games.  The last time these teams met, Toronto didn’t trail once during their first four-game sweep in the Bronx since May 2003.  The total has gone Under 11 times in the season series.

The Yankees are coming into this series hot, winning six straight games, including an impressive three-game sweep at Fenway over the weekend.  They’ve been better at covering on the road this year, going 42-36 against the spread outside of Yankee Stadium.  The total has gone Under in eight of New York’s last 12 games overall and five of their last six on the road.  The Yankees are 30-23 against left-handed pitchers this year.

Toronto is middling out at the wrong time, going 13-7 straight up over their last 20 games.  Rogers Centre could get them back on track though, as they’ve won eight of their last 10 home games.  They’re 39-36 ATS at home this season, which is impressive considering they’ve had three different home ballparks in 2021.  The total has gone Under in six straight games for the Blue Jays.  Toronto is 66-49 against right-handed pitchers this year.

New York Yankees

It’s been a rollercoaster year for the Yankees, but they’re riding high after sweeping the rival Red Sox at Fenway and overtaking Boston to hold the first AL wild-card spot.  With power hitters like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton on the roster, it’s a little surprising to see New York’s offensive struggles.  They’re averaging 4.40 runs per game (18th in the majors) and a .732 team OPS (12th).  The pitching staff has kept the Yankees alive with an AL-leading 3.71 ERA.

Right-hander Jameson Taillon is on the mound to start the series after sitting on the IL because of ankle discomfort.  Taillon’s last start came on September 6 against the Blue Jays.  He allowed three runs on four hits and two walks while striking out five across seven innings, earning the loss in an 8-0 defeat.  Taillon has had an up-and-down year, posting an 8-6 record with a 4.41 ERA in 27 starts.

Toronto Blue Jays

After dropping their three-game series against the AL-leading Rays last week, Toronto salvaged their four-game set against Minnesota over the weekend, winning the final two games.  Danny Jansen launched a three-run homer in the Sunday finale, with George Springer also going deep in the game.  That elite offence is what has kept the Jays alive all year.  Toronto leads the majors in home runs (248) and OPS (.792), while they sit second in batting average (.265) and third in RBI (778).

Lefty Hyun Jin Ryu will open the series for Toronto.  Ryu is making his return after a brief stint on the IL with neck stiffness.  He was lit up in his last outing against Minnesota on September 17.  Ryu lasted just two innings, allowing five runs on five hits and one walk with two strikeouts in a 7-3 loss.  The 34-year-old has had a down year to this point, posting a 13-9 record with a 4.34 ERA across 29 starts.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Yankees vs. Blue Jays?

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