Thursday’s game from Kaufmann Stadium is an AL Central affair between the visiting Minnesota Twins (56-59) and the Kansas City Royals (48-67). The Royals have won the first two games of this series, but the Twins are the ones still in the mix for a Wild Card spot in the American League. Meanwhile, the Royals are firmly at the bottom of the division and stockpiled some arms for next season and beyond after trading Kris Bubic, Lane Thomas and Bailey Falter.

Before Thursday’s first pitch at 7:30 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.

KC is a -125 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 9.0.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

Both teams are incredibly underwhelming in terms of offensive potential, but the same can be said for their pitching. It could be a very middling game, to a point where the over is most definitely in play.

However, showing some deference and a nod to Michael Wacha being at home, as well as the fact that he’s been Kansas City’s best pitcher this season, leads us to want to lean to the Royals’ ML straight up rather than tempt fate with extreme variance.

Minnesota Twins

For the Twins, it seems like we’re in peak Royce Lewis time, which they need to take advantage of while he’s hitting because we know what happens after a Royce Lewis hitting binge. The Twins are pretty good at hitting home runs, as they’re 12th in MLB in that regard, and 10th in runs scored. They clearly have bats, led by Byron Buxton (.864 OPS, 25 HR, 45 RBI), Josh Bell (14 HR, 64 RBI) and Kody Clemens (.758 OPS, 19 HR, 53 RBI).

However, their pitching outside of Joe Ryan (6-8, 3.65 ERA) and Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.69 ERA) has been very much a work in progress. It’s been Bailey Ober (Thursday’s starter) eating innings, but a lot of struggling between Simeon Woods Richardson (7.74 ERA), Zebby Matthews (5.22 ERA) and Connor Prielipp (4.75 ERA), as young pitchers the Twins are hoping to be complements to Ryan and Bradley.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals sport a middle-of-the-road offence sparked by their best player and tablesetter, Bobby Witt Jr., who is putting up another awesome season. He’s already at 5.0 WAR on the campaign, even if the counting stats (13 HR, 41 RBI) are somewhat lacking. They haven’t gotten much power out of their lineup with the fifth-fewest home runs and eighth-fewest runs scored in baseball. The fading superstar Salvador Perez (16 HR, -0.5 WAR) is still going at age 36, but he’s supported by other quality bats like Jac Caglianone (.765 OPS, 18 HR) and Carter Jensen (.718 OPS, 15 HR, 54 RBI).

Their pitching overall has been suspect, but Thursday’s starter Wacha has been by far their best turn in the starting rotation all season, with a 2.6 WAR and a 3.51 ERA. Seth Lugo (4.41 ERA) and Noah Cameron (4.37 ERA) have been around all season, but injuries have taken a toll on their fourth and fifth starter spots after pitchers Kris Bubic and Cole Ragans have fallen to injuries.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Twins vs. Royals?

For the visiting Twins, Thursday’s starting pitcher is Ober, who has been serviceable this season, eating innings for Minnesota to the tune of a 4.45 ERA – though he’s been better in July with a 3.98 ERA. His last start was against these very Royals at Target Field, where Ober allowed just two earned runs in six innings pitched for a no-decision.

On the other side, it’s All-Star Wacha for the home Royals. Wacha was thought to be a trade deadline chip for Kansas City, but he remains to finish out the 2026 campaign. Wacha has been solid this season with a 3.51 ERA despite a 5-8 record. July has been his worst month this season, with an 0-3 record and the highest monthly ERA so far at 4.25.

This game is a very even matchup between these teams. However, with the better pitcher at home, we’ll go with the Royals and Wacha to take down the Twins and complete the sweep.

Best bet: Kansas City Royals ML (-121)

TWINS

Away

3

ROYALS

Home

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