Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Sep 17, 2021

Leading the AL wildcard race, the Blue Jays are headed home to open a three-game series against Minnesota on Friday night.

Minnesota
73-89
AT
September 17, 2021, 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
Toronto
91-71
Runline +1.5 -108
Moneyline +171
Over / Under o +9.5

11%

Betting Action

89%

Runline -1.5 -112
Moneyline -205
Over / Under u +9.5

11%

Betting Action

89%

Toronto’s bats have powered them back into the wildcard race, but every game from here on out is essentially a must-win.  Next up for the Jays is a three-game home set against the Minnesota Twins that kicks off Friday night at Rogers Centre.

Toronto is a fairly sizeable -214 home favourite to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.0.

Betting Analysis

It’s been two years since these teams faced each other, with Minnesota winning four of seven meetings in 2019.  That hasn’t deterred Sports Interaction bettors though, as over 90 per cent of action is siding with the Jays.

The Twins are heading to the Six on a cold streak and have dropped four of their last six games overall.  It is worth noting, however, Minnesota has taken their last seven games in Toronto.  They’ve been a terrible cover option this year, going 59-88 against the spread overall and 32-41 ATS on the road.  The total has gone Over in five of Minnesota’s last seven games.

The Blue Jays have easily been the hottest team in the majors over the last two weeks, winning 13 of their last 15 games overall and six of their last seven at home.  They’re 79-68 ATS overall, but that number drops to just above .500 at home (37-35 ATS).  The total has gone Under in 10 of Toronto’s last 11 games against AL Central opponents.

Minnesota Twins

For a while now, the Twins’ only chance to impact the standings has been to play spoiler.  They’re not exactly coming into this series with confidence, after dropping two of three games to Cleveland this week, including a 12-3 blowout loss on Wednesday.  All three runs came off a Miguel Sano home run in the seventh inning, when Minnesota already trailed 10-0.  Rookie starter Griffin Jax was charged with the loss after allowing three earned runs off seven hits.  Jax lasted 4 2/3 innings, striking out three batters.

It’ll be Michael Pineda on the mound to start the series on Friday.  Pineda picked up the win in his last outing, a 9-2 decision last Saturday.  He pitched five innings of one-run ball, allowing five hits and no walks while striking out three.  Pineda has arguably been Minnesota’s best starter this year, going 9-8 with a 3.87 ERA in 18 appearances.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto has been the best team in baseball in the month of September, only dropping two of 15 games.  They’re coming off a big series win against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays, capped off by a five-RBI night from Bo Bichette in a 6-3 win on Wednesday.  Robbie Ray added to his Cy Young case by allowing one run on four hits and no walks across seven innings while striking out 13.

Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the start on Friday.  Ryu is looking for a bounce-back performance after allowing seven runs on eight hits and two walks while striking out just one in 2 1/3 innings in his last start.  Overall, Ryu is still having a decent year, going 13-8 with a 4.11 ERA in 28 starts.

The player to watch is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has launched himself back in the MVP conversation as he chases the triple crown.  Guerrero is tied for the major league lead in home runs (45), is second in batting average (.317) and sits tied for third in RBIs (103).

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Twins vs. Blue Jays?

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