Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees MLB Playoffs: Game 2 Odds, Prediction
Boston’s season is on the line Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium after New York dominated Game 1, 9-0.
The Red Sox again had no answer for Cam Schlittler, who struck out 10 over 6.1 scoreless innings. Austin Wells opened the scoring with a two-out RBI single, then Ben Rice took over, homering twice and driving in six runs.
Now Boston turns to Sonny Gray against Max Fried in another high-end pitching matchup, needing a win to force a decisive Game 3.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Game 1 exposed some vulnerability in Boston’s biggest strength.
After Payton Tolle exited, Erik Miller, Greg Weissert, Alec Gamboa and Wyatt Olds combined to allow six runs, six hits and three walks over 2.2 innings without recording a strikeout.
Boston still finished the regular season with baseball’s best bullpen ERA, and I expect a more traditional late-game script if Gray can give them five innings.
Both offences also face another starter with excellent career numbers against the opposing lineup.
Boston Red Sox
Gray went 18-5 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 169 innings and has been even better lately, pitching to an ERA below 2.20 since the beginning of August.
He also owns a 3.26 career postseason ERA across six starts.
The Yankees’ active roster is just 37-for-161 lifetime against Gray with a .642 OPS. He handled New York twice in July, including seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball with nine strikeouts in the most recent meeting.
The concern is Rice, who is 3-for-7 with two home runs against Gray and just produced the biggest game of his season Tuesday.
New York Yankees
Fried gives New York another legitimate ace after Schlittler set the tone in Game 1.
The left-hander finished with a 2.80 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across 112.2 innings and 20 starts, while posting an ERA below 2.00 from the beginning of August onward.
Boston has struggled badly against him historically, going just 28-for-136 with a .579 OPS.
Trevor Story has had the most success, going 5-for-22 with two home runs, but several key Red Sox hitters have been neutralized. Ceddanne Rafaela is 2-for-18 with six strikeouts, Adley Rutschman is 0-for-10 and Jarren Duran is 2-for-16.
Fried is especially difficult once he settles in, holding hitters below a .185 average and .451 OPS the second and third time through the order.
Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Yankees?
I like Boston to punch back. Fried has been excellent, but his first-time-through numbers are far more ordinary than what he produces later, and that gives the Red Sox their best chance to grab an early lead.
The Red Sox finished seventh in baseball in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, and Fried has a poor 5.31 postseason ERA across 22 appearances, including 14 starts.
Gray has the form, road track record and matchup history to keep New York under control long enough for Boston to settle in.
This time, I expect the Red Sox to protect a late lead with Jovani Moran, Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman.
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NYY