Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Game 1: MLB Odds, Prediction
Boston and New York renew their rivalry on Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium in Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series.
The Yankees won the regular-season series 7-6 and finished with a plus-16 run differential, thanks to a 16-1 blowout in the finale. New York also won this exact Wild Card matchup in three games last season.
This time, both teams enter with elite pitching and some offensive uncertainty. Cam Schlittler starts for New York against Payton Tolle, while the availability of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Garrett Crochet could significantly influence how this series unfolds.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
The Yankees are set as -130 favourites on the MLB odds board, while the 6.5-run total reflects just how strong the pitching matchup is.
Boston finished first in MLB with a 3.00 bullpen ERA, while New York ranked second at 3.15. The Red Sox could become even more dangerous late on if Crochet is activated and available out of the bullpen.
Both starters have also dominated this opponent, making every early run especially valuable.
Boston Red Sox
Boston’s offence enters cold after posting an 81 wRC+ in September, but that number came while Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela missed significant time. Both are back now.
Tolle gives the Red Sox a legitimate chance to steal Game 1. The left-hander held New York to one hit over seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts in June and also allowed just one run over six innings with 11 strikeouts in April.
Active Yankees hitters are only 4-for-32 against him.
Boston also owns the deeper late-inning matchup options, especially against New York’s left-handed-heavy lineup, while they finished sixth in MLB with a +23 Fielding Run Value.
New York Yankees
American League Cy Young favourite Cam Schlittler has been almost untouchable all year, and especially against Boston.
Across four regular-season starts and one Wild Card outing last year, he has allowed just two earned runs over 32.1 innings, good for a 0.56 ERA.
His most memorable performance came in last year’s deciding Wild Card game, when he struck out 12 over eight scoreless innings.
Rafaela has handled him best at 4-for-14 (4 singles), but Boston’s lineup owns just a .167 average and .438 OPS against him overall.
New York’s biggest question is health. Judge, Stanton and Trent Grisham are all trying to get ready, while the Yankees may also rely on rookies Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr. at two key defensive positions.
Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Yankees?
Everything points toward a low-scoring opener.
Schlittler has completely owned Boston, while Tolle has been equally difficult for New York. Behind them sit the two best bullpens in baseball.
The Yankees have the stronger recent playoff history in this matchup, but the Red Sox have enough pitching depth and defensive quality to stay within one swing all night.
I’ll take the Under as the stronger wager and Boston to deliver the decisive hit late.
BOS
NYY