Red Sox vs. Rangers MLB Betting Odds, Picks: Boston looks to avoid series sweep in Texas
Boston tries to avoid a sweep Thursday night at Globe Life Field after Texas took the first two games of this crucial American League series, 4-2 and 7-3.
The Rangers have climbed back to 76-76 and, after Houston lost Wednesday, are level with their in-state rival atop the AL West. Boston sits 82-70 and remains in the Wild Card picture, but the Red Sox have looked flat offensively through two games in Arlington.
Thursday offers a much different pitching setup, however, with Sonny Gray starting for Boston against a Texas bullpen game.
The Red Sox are -125 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.0.
MLB Betting Odds and Trends
Texas has won four straight and ranks eighth in MLB with a .758 OPS in September, while Boston sits 25th at .675.
But the broader offensive profile still favours the Red Sox. Boston ranks fourth with a .759 OPS since the All-Star break and fifth against left-handed pitching at .747.
The bullpen difference is even greater: Boston ranks second with a 3.12 relief ERA, compared to Texas at 4.45, which ranks 22nd.
Boston Red Sox
Veteran right-hander Sonny Gray is 17-5 with a 2.76 ERA, including a 2.61 mark on the road and 2.38 ERA in night games. Since the beginning of August, his ERA is below 2.30.
Texas hitters have also struggled badly against him, going just 21-for-100 lifetime without a home run and producing a .509 OPS.
Boston should also benefit from seeing Texas relievers much earlier. The Red Sox rank only 19th in OPS through the first six innings, but jump to eighth from the seventh inning onward.
Ceddanne Rafaela’s potential return would further deepen a lineup that has clearly missed him.
Texas Rangers
Texas has earned its first two wins of this series, but Jacob deGrom and MacKenzie Gore gave the Rangers a pitching advantage.
Tyler Alexander is expected to open before Texas turns things over to the rest of its bullpen. Boston hitters have gone 13-for-35 against Alexander with two home runs, two doubles and eight RBIs.
Adley Rutschman is 4-for-8 with a homer, double and three RBIs against him, while Isaiah Kiner-Falefa is 4-for-11.
The Rangers have also been much weaker against right-handed pitching, ranking 26th with a .696 OPS.
They are dangerous at home, but their overall .723 home OPS ranks only 18th.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Rangers?
Texas has momentum, but this is the spot where I expect this resilient Red Sox team to answer.
Gray owns an enormous matchup advantage over a bullpen game, and the Red Sox have the superior relief corps once he exits. Boston has also been one of baseball’s best offences following a loss, ranking sixth in OPS in that situation, while Texas ranks 23rd following a win.
I’m backing Boston to avoid the sweep and create separation late.
Best Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+118)
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