Thursday’s AL East divisional matchup features the Boston Red Sox (75-65) heading down to Baltimore to take on the Orioles (69-71) in the first game of a four-game weekend set at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

After some scorching hot baseball after the All-Star break, the Sox are scuffling a little bit as losers of six of their last eight games. Meanwhile, the Orioles have won eight of their last 12 games and find themselves just 1.5 games behind the final AL Wild Card spot despite being tied with the Toronto Blue Jays for last place in the AL East.

Before first pitch at 7:15 p.m. ET, let’s go over the betting angles, review both teams and then make a prediction for this game.

Boston is a -125 favourite to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 8.5.

MLB Betting Odds and Trends

Both teams are heading in opposite directions as it stands right now, and with the Orioles on a nice little run, they can’t be discounted just for being tied for the cellar in the division. Baltimore is a legitimate playoff contender right now, and these games are massive. They come back home after a nine-game road trip where they went 6-3 against the Cardinals, Athletics, and Rockies.

The over is definitely in play here, with both teams putting up runs over the last week despite the Sox and Orioles losing their last two games, as is the Baltimore runline now they’re back home.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are a very top-heavy team, with the bulk of their run production coming from Ceddanne Rafaela (5.2 WAR, 16 HR, 70 RBI, .760 OPS), Willson Contreras (.900 OPS, 4.3 WAR, 26 HR, 79 RBI) and Wilyer Abreu (.809 OPS, 5.4 WAR, 23 HR, 70 RBI).

Over the last couple of weeks, it’s been Mickey Gaspar, who put up a video game-like OPS of 1.671 in 42 plate appearances, which according to Sports Illustrated, is the second-highest OPS in a month ever recorded with a minimum of 40 plate appearances.

It’s been a turbulent second half for Boston, who seem like locks for a Wild Card playoff spot at least, given the mediocre state of the American League Wild Card race at this point in the season’s final month of the regular season.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles sport a very league-average offence, with the 16th-highest OPS and runs scored this season. Pete Alonso has been as advertised, as he’s on the cusp of 30 home runs with an .858 OPS this season.

Gunnar Henderson has disappointed with a .704 OPS, 20 HR and 51 RBI just two seasons removed from his transcendent 2024 season with a 9.1 WAR and .893 OPS.

Baltimore has a ton of young bats, but most of them are underachieving this season, so you have to ask: will the Orioles tear down and rebuild, or continue and hope they round into form?

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Red Sox vs. Orioles?

Thursday’s pitching matchup features two unheralded but important rotation arms for both clubs. The Red Sox will send out lefty Jake Bennett, who is sporting a 3.27 ERA and a 9-6 record in 16 starts this season. Bennett has been solid all season, but his August was one to forget, with a 4.50 ERA. His last start against the Yankees put him back on the right track with six innings of three-hit ball and seven strikeouts to get the win.

For the Orioles, it’s righty Brandon Young taking the bump for the home club. In 23 starts, Young has a very good 3.38 ERA and a 9-3 record across the season, and he’s been one of the most consistent arms every fifth day for Baltimore. 

This game should be entertaining, but we’re going to take the Over on the runline, even in a matchup of solid pitchers. With both teams jockeying for playoff positioning, runs should be flowing in Camden Yards.

Best bet: Over 8.5 runs (-103)

RED SOX

Away

5

ORIOLES

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