Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays start their final homestand of the season Tuesday against Boston looking to clinch the AL East title and top seed in the Junior Circuit playoffs early this week. Toronto is a -165 favourite on the MLB odds with a total of 8.0 runs.
Betting Analysis
The Blue Jays have clinched a playoff spot and lead the AL East by two games over the New York Yankees. Their magic number for that is four. Should be a done deal with Toronto as a -750 favourite. For the top seed in the AL playoffs, Toronto is three games up on AL West-leading Seattle so that also looks like it will be done. The Jays are -700 for the No. 1 seed. Once both are clinched, you may see the Jays rest some guys to heal up, etc. This weekend’s home series vs. Tampa Bay to close the regular season might be meaningless.
Boston most likely will return to the playoffs for the first time since losing in the 2021 ALCS to Houston. The Red Sox hold the AL’s second Wild-Card spot and are priced -900 for extra baseball with no at +600. They close with three at home vs. Detroit. Depending on how the seeding shakes out and if the Red Sox advance in the Wild-Card Series, Boston and Toronto could meet in the ALDS. The franchises have never met in the post-season.
The Blue Jays have lost back-to-back season series’ against the Red Sox but already have clinched this year’s leading 7-3. That includes a 2-1 home mark. George Springer is batting .379 with a homer and seven RBIs vs. Boston pitching in 2025, while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has three homers, seven RBIs and 10 runs scored. Rafael Devers had good numbers in seven games for the Red Sox vs. the Jays but was traded to San Francisco in mid-June. Jarren Duran is hitting .289 vs. Toronto pitching with two doubles, a triple, homer and six runs scored.
Boston Red Sox
It’s also possible that Boston misses the playoffs entirely, so the Blue Jays will get the best the Red Sox have. But they haven’t been the same offensively when since stellar rookie outfielder Roman Anthony went down with an oblique injury in early September. Still not clear if he can make it back by the end of the regular season. Boston is 7-9 since Anthony was hurt. DH/outfielder Wilyer Abreu returned from the 10-day injured list Sunday after missing a little over a month. Even with the time he missed, Abreu is second on the team in homers (22) to Trevor Story.
It’s veteran righty and potential American League Comeback Player of the Year Lucas Giolito (10-4, 3.46 ERA) on the mound Tuesday. The 31-year-old has been a godsend after missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery. That said, Giolito might be tiring at 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA in three starts this month. He is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two starts this year against the Blue Jays, who are hitting .216 off him. Alejandro Kirk is 6-for-17 career off him with four homers. Vladimir Gureero Jr. is only 4-for-24 off him with five Ks.
Boston is 5-2 in its past seven road games.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays snapped a four-game losing streak – which let the Yankees back in the AL East race – with an 8-5 win in Kansas City on Sunday in their final road game of the regular season. That win also allowed Toronto to clinch its first playoff spot since 2023. It was the Jays’ 13th game in 13 days, so Monday’s off day was needed. It finished a very acceptable 40-41 away. Shortstop Bo Bichette won’t return this week from the injured list, but there’s still hope for the playoffs. His injury means no Blue Jays batter will reach 100 RBIs as Bichette leads the team with 94 and no one else has more than 83.
It’s veteran righty Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.38 ERA) on the mound Tuesday, and he might be the guy for Game 1 of the ALDS as well. Gausman took a no-decision last time out in Tampa and has now allowed one earned run or fewer in four straight outings with a 0.90 ERA over 30 innings in that span. Gausman would be lined up for Sunday’s finale vs. Tampa Bay, but why use him if not necessary? His lone start vs. the Red Sox in 2025 was April 9 at Fenway Park. Gausman allowed an unearned run with just four hits and 10 strikeouts over eight innings in a no-decision.
The under is 11-5 in Toronto’s past 16 games.
BOS
TOR