Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Odds, Prediction
The Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates will begin a three-game series in Pittsburgh on Friday evening, with first pitch set for 6:45 PM ET on Apple TV. Both teams are off to solid starts this season and find themselves atop their respective divisions. The Rays are 11-7 to lead the American League East; the Pirates’ 11-8 record is good for first place in the National League Central (tied with Cincinnati).
These teams faced each other three times during the early stages of last year, when Tampa Bay took the series 2-1 at home. The Rays dominated the first two games by scores of 6-1 and 7-0 before the Pirates won the finale 4-2.
The Pirates are set as -125 favourites on the MLB odds board.
Betting Analysis
In addition to being 2-1 straight up against Pittsburgh in 2025, Tampa Bay was also 2-1 on the run line. The Rays have won eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to June of 2022, with all but one of those victories coming by multiple runs. As for the over/under, the under was a perfect 3-0 in the three matchups last year and has cashed in five straight head-to-head encounters. This season, however, the over is 4-1 in the Rays’ last five overall and 6-3 in the Pirates’ last nine.
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay has caught fire following a slow start to the year. The Rays were 2-5 through seven games but have since won nine of their last 11 contests. This hot stretch features a current six-game winning streak with sweeps of the Yankees and White Sox.
Nick Martinez will toe the rubber for the opening game of this series. The right-hander is still going strong at 35 years old and has come into 2026 like gangbusters for his new ballclub. Martinez has not yet recorded a decision, but he has compiled a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through three starts in addition to a respectable 11-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 16.2 innings.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates signed 19-year-old shortstop Konnor Griffin to a nine-year, $140 contract extension last week. One of the top prospects in baseball, Griffin is off to a slow start in the very early stages of his career. The ninth overall pick in the 2024 draft is batting .214 with no homers, six RBIs, five runs scored, one stolen base and 14 strikeouts.
Griffin is part of a youth movement in Pittsburgh that also features pitchers Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler. It is Chandler who will take the mound on Friday, sporting a 3.86 ERA and 1.57 WHIP through three appearances. The WHIP is alarming for the 23-year-old righty, and it is largely due to 12 walks issued to go along with 14 strikeouts in 14.0 innings of work. Chandler fired 4.1 innings of scoreless baseball in his season debut against Cincinnati but has compiled a 5.59 ERA in two April outings.
Who Will Win Rays vs. Pirates?
Chandler’s control issues are concerning. Until he figures that out, it’s hard to have complete confidence in him working deep into a game and taking some pressure off a Pittsburgh bullpen that has done some decent damage control but is by no means among the better units in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored at least five runs in six straight games, so a red-hot Martinez should get enough run support on Friday. Let’s go with the Rays to win 5-3.
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