Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
With wins in nine of their last 10 games, the Blue Jays have had one of the biggest in-season turnarounds in franchise history and now sit tied with Boston for the first wildcard spot in the AL East. Toronto took three of four games in Baltimore over the weekend, scoring a monstrous 47 runs in the series, including 22 on Sunday.
The Rays spent the weekend in Detroit and dropped two of three against the Tigers, but they still have a comfortable nine-game lead in the AL East.
The opening game of the series sees the Jays as -155 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with a total of 9.5.
Betting Analysis
Tampa Bay has the edge in the season series, winning eight of 13 games against Toronto. The total has gone Under eight times between these teams this year, including in the last five games.
The Rays have easily been the best team in the AL East this season. They’ve won 14 of their last 20 games overall and eight of their last 11 on the road. They’ve also had the upper hand against Toronto, winning seven of their last 10 against the Jays overall and seven of their last nine in Toronto. The total has gone Over in six of Tampa’s last eight games. They’ve been a great cover option on the road this year, going 46-26 against the spread outside of Tampa Bay.
Toronto has been red-hot lately, winning 11 of their last 12 games overall and five of their last six at home. They’ve hit double-digit runs in three straight games and hit the Over in four of their last five. The Jays are 35-34 ATS at home this year, compared to 41-33 ATS on the road.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have largely run away with the division this year, but they’re coming off a weekend that saw them drop two of three games to a weak Detroit team. It was a frustrating 8-7 loss on Sunday, as the game ended with a bases-loaded walk in the 11th inning. Tampa hadn’t lost a series since Aug. 13-15th in Minnesota.
There hasn’t officially been a starter named for Monday, but it’s expected that left-hander Ryan Yarbrough will be on the mound. In 26 games this season (20 starts) Yarbrough is 8-4 with a 4.90 ERA. He had a disastrous outing in his last start, giving up seven earned runs and getting pulled after two innings against the Red Sox, although Tampa went on to win the game 11-10. In four games (three starts) against the Jays this year, Yarbrough is 2-0 with a 2.489 ERA. He’s picking up a career-low 6.95 strikeouts per nine innings, but he’s walking just 1.65 batters per nine innings and 65.1 per cent of his first pitches are strikes.
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 44th home run of the year on Sunday, helped him draw even with the Angels’ two-way star Shohei Ohtani for the major league lead. It was part of an offensive explosion that saw Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez each hit a grand slam in a 22-7 win. Gurriel’s franchise-record fourth grand slam of the season helped Toronto finish just two runs shy of their single-game record. Toronto’s bats put up 22 runs a day after finishing with back-to-back 11-run games in a double-header on Saturday.
Right-hander Alek Manoah will get the start on Monday. In 16 starts, the rookie has put up a 5-2 record with a 3.71 ERA. Manoah gave up three earned runs and lasted 5 2/3 innings, but didn’t earn the decision in his last start, which came in a 6-3 win against the Yankees. He’s had a strong first season, averaging 9.74 strikeouts and 3.28 walks per nine innings. Manoah has held hitters to a combined .203 batting average and won seven of his last eight starts. In two starts against the Rays, Manoah is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA.
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