Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets: Odds, Prediction
After the Yankees and Giants play a standalone game on Wednesday night, the official Opening Day of the 2026 Major League Baseball season takes centre stage on Thursday. It begins with an afternoon special between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets at Citi Field in New York.
Pittsburgh is coming off a dreadful year, finishing last in the National League Central with a 71-91 record. New York was a massive disappointment, missing the playoffs with an 83-79 record. These two teams squared off six times, with the Pirates going 4-2 in those meetings.
The Mets are -125 favourites to win on the MLB odds, with the total set at 6.5.
Betting Analysis
In addition to being 4-2 straight up against New York in 2025, Pittsburgh was also a perfect 6-0 on the run line. That’s right; the Pirates did not drop a single game to the Mets by more than one run (their two losses came by 4-3 and 2-1 margins).
After coming up short in the first two head-to-head meetings last year, Pittsburgh completely dominated the next four by scores of 4-0, 9-1, 9-2, and 12-1.
Pittsburgh Pirates
There are two versions of this Pittsburgh ballclub – one when Paul Skenes pitches; one when Paul Skenes does not pitch. Good news for Pirates fans: Paul Skenes is pitching on Thursday afternoon. The right-hander dominated to the tune of a 1.97 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with a 216-to-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 187.2 innings last season. Skenes won’t be rusty, either, since he just put in some high-leverage work during the World Baseball Classic.
The LSU product has never gotten any run support from the Pirates, which is why he went just 10-10 in 2025. Will he get any on Thursday? Marcell Ozuna was a free-agent acquisition and, as the new designated hitter, will look to add a boost to a lineup that once again features Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz.
New York Mets
New York has a history of collapsing down the stretch, and that is exactly what it did last season. A ridiculous eight-game losing streak in September started the Mets’ demise before they dropped two of three at Miami on the final weekend to seal their fate. As usual, owner Steve Cohen spent big in hopes of turning things around. Among the team’s newcomers for 2026 are Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Freddy Peralta, and Devin Williams.
The Mets will waste no time handing the ball to Peralta for his team debut. They acquired the 29-year-old righty in a January trade that sent a couple of prospects to Milwaukee. Peralta was outstanding for the Brewers in 2025, compiling a 17-6 record with a 2.70 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 204 strikeouts in 176.2 innings.
MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Pirates vs. Mets?
The Pirates scored a laughable 583 runs last year, by far the fewest in all of Major League Baseball. It’s hard to see them exploding at the start of this season, especially when they have to open against the Mets’ ace in Peralta. Of course, there is no reason to think that New York’s offence is going to do much of anything against Skenes. In 13.0 innings against the Mets across the past two seasons, Skenes has allowed just three runs while striking out 14 batters. Let’s go with Mets 3, Pirates 2.
