The Blue Jays are -165 favourites to win on the MLB odds behind Jose Berrios.

Betting Analysis

This Pirates series fell at a really good spot on the schedule for Toronto because it will not face either of Pittsburgh’s stellar rookie pitchers in Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. Jones might be really good but Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, might be an all-timer as he throws as hard as anyone ever has and is just filthy. If Skenes stays healthy, he’s winning at least one Cy Young Award. Many have compared him to a young Stephen Strasburg, who was the No. 1 overall pick in 2009 by Washington. He had a very good but too-brief career due to injury.

With Skenes, Jones and young shortstop Oneil Cruz as their foundation, the Pirates could be a National League contender as soon as 2025 if the notoriously penny-pinching ownership spends even a little money filling in the gaps. Pittsburgh hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2015 or finished with a winning record since 2018, which is possible this year. The postseason doesn’t seem likely.

This is Pittsburgh’s first visit to Toronto since 2017. The Blue Jays swept three games at PNC Park both last year and in 2022.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh like Toronto was off Thursday. The Pirates started this week splitting two games in Detroit – Tuesday’s was rained out so they played a doubleheader Wednesday and split. Andrew McCutchen had a three-run homer in the nightcap for his 1,600th career hit with the franchise – that ranks 12th in Pirates history. He’s batting .333 with nine RBIs in his past 12 games. Infielder Nick Gonzales was 4-for-9 with two runs and two RBIs in the doubleheader and has hit safely in 13 of his past 15, batting .328 in that span. Gonzales only made his season debut May 10.

It’s lefty Bailey Falter (3-2, 3.55 ERA) on the mound Friday. The 27-year-old had a 5.58 ERA in 40.1 innings last year with the Bucs but already has thrown 58.1 in 2024 in a potential career season. Falter beat the Braves last time out, allowing three earned over 7.1 innings in a third straight quality start. Falter has spent his career in the NL and has never faced the Jays. Justin Turner is 0-for-2 off him with a walk. The Pirates are 2-10 in their past 12 vs. the American League.

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto did exactly what it was supposed to do to start this week: Sweep three games at the horrid Chicago White Sox, winning each by multiple runs. It was the Jays’ first sweep of the season – they had been the only MLB club to have neither swept nor been swept this season. In Wednesday’s finale, Isiah Kiner-Falefa went 1-for-3 with a walk and two RBIs. He has an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .400 over that stretch. George Springer, no longer hitting leadoff, scored six runs in the series. The news wasn’t all good as starting pitcher Alek Manoah was to have an MRI on his injured right elbow Thursday. He was pulled after 1.2 innings Wednesday.

It’s veteran righty Jose Berrios (5-4, 2.94 ERA) on the mound Friday. He allowed eight runs in his first start this month in Philadelphia and has followed with three straight quality outings. In three career starts vs. Pittsburgh, Berrios is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA in 16 innings. Toronto is 0-5 in its past five on a Friday.

MLB Prediction: Who Will Win Pirates vs. Blue Jays?