Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays: Odds, Prediction
The Blue Jays return home from a seven-game road trip on Friday night by welcoming the co-last-place team in the NL Central, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Toronto is a -165 favourite on the MLB odds for the opener with a total of eight runs.
Betting Analysis
The Pittsburgh Pirates have not made the playoffs since 2015 and probably won’t this season – priced +270 to do so — despite having the most dominant pitcher in the game in right-hander Paul Skenes. The former No. 1 overall pick and 2024 NL Rookie of the Year was the 2025 NL Cy Young in unanimous fashion and is the current +240 favourite to repeat. The Blue Jays are scheduled to see him Saturday.
Pittsburgh also has a top candidate for NL Rookie of the Year this season in shortstop Konnor Griffin (+290 second-favourite for the award), who entered the campaign as the No. 1 overall prospect in the sport. The 20-year-old is batting .278 with 11 steals. But overall, the Pirates likely don’t have the hitting to contend for a wild card spot unless ownership is ready to spend some money via trades and acquiring salaries by the late-July deadline. In past years, ownership would not spend but already signed Griffin to a historic nine-year, $140 million (US) extension, so perhaps things are finally changing in Steel Town.
Toronto lost two of three at Pittsburgh’s spectacular PNC Park in 2025, while the Pirates lost two of three in their last visit to Rogers Centre in 2024.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh enters having won its final two games in St. Louis to open this week, which followed a four-game losing streak. A very inconsistent lineup has woken up of late with 19 runs in the past three games after being shutout in the two previous. With outfielder Ryan O’Hearn on the injured list, the Pirates called up two of their top prospects this week in outfielders Jhostynxon Garcia and Esmerlyn Valdez. Garcia has gone 3-for-9 with an RBI thus far, while Valdez has yet to make his big-league debut.
Rookie right-hander Bubba Chandler, a touted prospect himself, takes the mound Friday. The 23-year-old has had some control issues and is 1-5 with a 5.14 ERA. Last time out, Chandler lasted only three innings, allowing five runs and walking four in a loss to Philadelphia. The Pirates have lost the past five times Chandler has taken the mound. Friday marks his first career look at Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays have to be feeling good about themselves after winning their final two games at Yankee Stadium to open this week and conclude a seven-game road trip at 4-3. The Toronto pitching staff held that vaunted Yankees offence to just one total run in those wins. Two key members of the bullpen in Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Rogers pitched in both, so they probably aren’t available Friday. George Springer homered Thursday and has a four-game hit streak to raise his average from .186 to .200.
Righty Kevin Gausman is on the mound Friday. Gausman (3-3, 3.45 ERA) was brilliant last Sunday in Detroit with six shutout innings, four hits allowed, five strikeouts and no walk in his first win personally since April 25. In 11 career appearances (nine starts) vs. Pittsburgh, Gausman is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA. But only two current Pirates have double-digit career at-bats off him: Brandon Lowe is 2-for-11 with a homer, and Bryan Reynolds is 3-for-14 with a double and five strikeouts.
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